Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 281532
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z SAT JUN 04 2016

THE 28/00Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS NEARLY ALL
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE ONE
CHALLENGE IS---HOW TO HANDLE THE SUB-SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENVIRONMENT---OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON DAY 4. THE GFS
CARRIES A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER
(SPAWNED BY CONVECTION) ACROSS OKLAHOMA---AND ITS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY DAY 5.

OTHERWISE...THE NATIONAL FORECAST AND BLEND (USED FROM THE
MIDSHIFT) COULD EASILY BE CARRIED FORWARD THROUGH DAY 5. FOR DAY
6-7...ATTENTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND A "RE-POSITIONING` OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DIFFUSE
TROUGH---FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION INVOF 75W LONGITUDE. THE
CATALYST BEING---A MIGRATORY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
TRANSITING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON DAY 6. A BLEND OF THE 28/00Z
ECENS/NAEFS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW---WITH 588DM HEIGHTS ATTEMPTING
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS.

OF NOTE---THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SUGGESTS A CLOSED 594DM
ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 4/00Z. THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS---588DM+ HEIGHTS---BUT LOCATED INVOF 110W
(COLORADO DIVIDE).

THE GENERAL SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOWER 48 REMAINS VERY
`SUMMER-LIKE.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIVING THE MARINE LAYER AND THERMAL TROUGH
MOVEMENTS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. TD
`TWO` (AT THE MOMENT) AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY `DRAPE` TO ITS NORTH---AND AN ACTIVE CANADIAN FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM THE DIVIDE SPREADING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY
RESPECTIVELY.

VOJTESAK














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