Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FXUS02 KWBC 300514
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 02 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 06 2016

...OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER STABLE, MAINTAINING THE
WESTERLIES ALONG/NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER. UPPER RIDGE WILL
MAINLY STAY IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN EXTENSION
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WED-FRI. IN THE TROPICS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES
TO MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN AND
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MEXICAN COAST LATER NEXT WEEK. PLEASE
SEE THE NHC WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.


...GUIDANCE ASSESSMENT...

CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH WAS FAVORED WITH THE LATEST 12Z/18Z
MODELS/ENSEMBLES. ECMWF CONTINUED THE SLOWER TREND SEEN 24 HRS AGO
WITH THE LEAD CLOSED LOW EXITING THE PAC NW TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES SPLIT N-S OVER CANADA WITH THE SFC LOW THU-FRI BUT
OTHERWISE WERE MORE AGREEABLE WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FRI INTO SAT.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE MID-CONTINENT, CLOCKWISE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.


FRACASSO

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.