Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 310629
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID JUL 31/0000 UTC THRU AUG 03/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
TERM FORECASTS.


NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z UKMET/CMC HAVE ADJUSTED WEAKER WITH ENERGY MOVING FROM NV
INTO THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND ARE NOW IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THESE POSITIVE
CHANGES...THE 00Z MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT SUCH THAT A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THIS SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY.


UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT REACHES SRN CALIFORNIA BY SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 00Z NAM BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE
AND WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE
CA/MX BORDER BY 12Z SUN. THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REFLECTION COMPARED TO THE REMAINING MODELS. THE 00Z
UKMET/CMC SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT TO THE GFS/ECMWF BUT DESPITE THEIR
LESS FAVORABLE RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT...CAN BE INCLUDED WITH A
NON-NAM BLEND.


UPPER TROUGH LINGERING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE SO A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE IS ADVISED TO SMOOTH OUT SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...
...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

OTTO

$$




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