Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS10 KWNH 291835
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED
CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO
PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SEE NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS

THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN BEST MIRROR THE 15Z NHC
FORECAST FOR BONNIE.  REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND
FORECAST REASONING.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH
$$





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