Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 271907
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 27 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2017

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MOST SOLUTIONS GENERALLY PREDICT TROUGHS OVER THE BERING
SEA, THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA/U.S.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA, THE GREAT PLAINS, AND OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AS
USUAL, THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED AMPLITUDES, PHASES, AND
ORIENTATIONS OF THESE LONG-WAVE FEATURES FROM THE GENERAL CONSENSUS PATTERN.
THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z GFS RUN DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER RUNS IN THAT IT FORECASTS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, INSTEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH IT PREDICTED YESTERDAY. TODAY`S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND
FAVORS TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAS SHOWN HIGHER RECENT SKILL THAN
THE OTHER MODELS.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURE TOOLS (FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS, CALIBRATED REFORECAST
GEFS AND ECMWF, AND THE MANUAL AND AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURES) GENERALLY FAVOR AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE
FORECAST AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF PREDICTED
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (INCLUDING MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA), AS WELL AS THE
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA TROUGHS AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSE TO ZERO.
FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA, WHICH INCLUDES THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, GENERALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH 500-HPA RIDGING AND MODESTLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE, THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MUCH OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM
NEW YORK TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE AREAS OF PREDICTED WETTER-THAN-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY ATTRIBUTED TO 500-HPA TROUGHS AND RELATED STORM
TRACKS, AND, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST, SEASONAL CONVECTION. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
MOST AREAS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE WEST COAST, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THESE AREAS OF PREDICTED DRIER-THAN-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
500-HPA RIDGES AND WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2017

THE PREDICTED WEEK-2 CIRCULATION PATTERN IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THAT EXPECTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH WITH TWO RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES. THE
FIRST DIFFERENCE IS AN EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AS PREDICTED BY THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS, AND BOTH THE 0Z AND 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE SECOND DIFFERENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED
RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG-WAVES IN THE ALASKA REGION, WITH EACH CIRCULATION
FEATURE (THE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, AND THE
MAINLAND ALASKA RIDGE) ASSUMING A MORE POSITIVE TILT.

THE ANTICIPATED WEEK-2 SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE
SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. MOISTURE RELATED TO THE ONSET PHASE OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT NEW MEXICO, AND PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES, DURING WEEK-2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO WEAK MEAN 500-HPA ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
DOMAIN, YET DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE SURFACE SPECIFICATION TOOLS.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY A

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030608 - 19600622 - 19720703 - 19510701 - 19630618


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030608 - 19600621 - 19630617 - 19580625 - 19850620


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2017

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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