Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FXUS06 KWBC 251943
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2016

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. TODAY`S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND INDICATES A
GENERAL PROPAGATION OF THE PATTERN OVER THE MID-LATITUDES WITH A BLOCKING
PATTERN INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST,
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE, AND FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE JUST NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE FORECAST
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO VERMONT DUE TO ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW.

RIDGING OVER ALASKA, AS THE NORTHERN COMPONENT TO AN EVOLVING BLOCKING PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
RIDGING AND MEAN OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY. TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS TRACKING A
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAHAMAS THAT HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND THAT INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2016

TODAY`S 500-HPA MODEL HEIGHT OUTLOOKS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EUROPEAN CENTER ENSEMBLE MEAN
OUTLOOK HAS MUCH LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY THAN IT DID
YESTERDAY, AND LOWER HEIGHTS THAN EITHER OF THE GEFS OR THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA
ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE RESULTANT OFFICIAL 500-HPA OUTLOOK FEATURES A BLOCKING
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA,
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY, AND TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA DUE TO MEAN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS FAVORS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM TEXAS THROUGH NEBRASKA TO
ILLINOIS, AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ARE WEAKLY FAVORED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL AVERAGE FLOW AND TROUGHING AT 500-HPA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. RIDGING OVER THE
WEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CONFIGURATION OF THE
PREDICTED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COULD ALLOW SOME STORM
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA, FAVORING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO A PREDICTED WEAK 500-HPA ANOMALY PATTERN, OFFSET BY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820531 - 19990601 - 19880505 - 19620519 - 19780531


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820531 - 19990601 - 19780531 - 19670604 - 19590524


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 31 - JUN 04, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 08 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.