Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 022048
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON MARCH 02 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 12 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE REST OF CONUS IN
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE MEXICAN BORDER. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A HIGH LEVEL OF
CERTAINTY ON A TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE,
WHILE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ONLY NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL HEIGHTS
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER TEXAS AND
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, RELATED TO THE FORECAST RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH SLOPE,
WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC COAST FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD, AS WELL AS FOR MOST OF ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE,
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOST
LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE CONUS, DOWNSTREAM OF THE PREDICTED RIDGE.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 16 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE
PACIFIC DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD MOVES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  OVERALL THE RIDGE OVER THE
CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.

OVERALL, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, AS ABOVE-NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR A MUCH SMALLER AREA OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TO THE
WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OFF OF
THE PACIFIC COAST. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ARE REDUCED IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
SUCH THAT NEAR-MEDIAN IS NOW FAVORED.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, IN ADDITION
TO UNCERTAINTY IN A CHANGING FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY TO
THE 8-14 DAY PERIODS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890212 - 20020303 - 19660214 - 19670304 - 19560311


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890212 - 20020304 - 19890217 - 19670307 - 20060218


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 08 - 12 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 10 - 16 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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