Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 221915
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 22 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS ANTICPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK 1/START OF THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.  UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

HAZARDS

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FRI-SAT, JUL 25-26.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, FRI-SAT, JUL 25-26.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-THU, JUL 27-31.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY JULY 25 - TUESDAY JULY 29: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
PERIOD. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF RELATED HAZARD
AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME.



A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND
BRING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRI-SAT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 100
DEGREES F ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.



A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN-TUE. TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-100 DEGREES F. THIS IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN
SINCE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IDAHO.
SMOKE FROM THESE WILDFIRES IS LIKELY TO REDUCE AIR QUALITY.



SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, A CRITCAL FIRE WEATHER HAZARD IS NOT DESIGNATED AT THIS
TIME.



FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOWARDS THE ALASKA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS
OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE FRI-SAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.



TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER HAWAII.



LATE IN THE PERIOD, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IMPINGING ON A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES SPECIFYING A
RELATED HAZARD SHAPE AT THE CURRENT TIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 30 - TUESDAY AUGUST 05: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PROLONG MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.



BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON JULY 15, THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. DECREASED FROM 25 TO 24 PERCENT
DURING THE PAST WEEK.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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