Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 251752
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 25 2015

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE DOMINANT FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. HIGH PRESSURE IS PREDICTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A NORTHERN PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING SEA, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC, AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN
COAST AND INITIALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THU-FRI, MAY
28-29.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST, THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, AND LONG ISLAND, SAT-SUN, MAY 30-31.

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, IMMINENT, OR OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK FOR INTERIOR EASTERN ALASKA, THU-MON, MAY 28-JUN 1.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY MAY 28 - MONDAY JUNE 01: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE NORTHEAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN (1.5-2.0 INCHES IN A 48-HOUR
PERIOD) IS INITIALLY PREDICTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, FOLLOWED BY SLOW, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE ENSUING FEW
DAYS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY, THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND, AND LONG ISLAND, NY.



NUMEROUS AREAS OF POSSIBLE, LIKELY, IMMINENT, AND OCCURRING FLOODING ARE
INDICATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS, WITH ALL THE HEAVY RAIN
RECEIVED IN RECENT DAYS AND WEEKS. TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST, DETAILED
INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE U.S., PLEASE CONSULT
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC) HOMEPAGE AT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.



IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA, CONTINUED WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ELSEWHERE IN THE ALASKA DOMAIN, A MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHERN PACIFIC CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE POLEWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
ARCHIPELAGO AND THE BERING SEA. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO HAZARDOUS AREAS
DEPICTED ON THE MAP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.



AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, AS IT INITIALLY
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME.

FOR TUESDAY JUNE 02 - MONDAY JUNE 08: THE EXPECTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 FEATURES THE WESTERLIES MOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. SIGNIFICANT
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500-HPA (RANGING FROM +60 TO +110 METERS) ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, AND ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
PREDICTED HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT BELOW HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS AT THIS TIME.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED MAY 21ST, INDICATES A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE (FROM 17.68 TO 15.16) IN THE PERCENTAGE OF THE CONUS IN
SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2-D4).

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

$$




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