Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 222015
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MARCH 22 2017

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INITIALLY FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MARCH 27TH.
DURING THIS TIME, A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE SURFACE
LOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SEVERAL OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGHOUT THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. SEVERAL
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE PREDICTED TO TRAVERSE THE WEST DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD,
WITH A DECLINE IN STORM ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED IN WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, WHILE
SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

HAZARDS

SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, SAT, MAR 25.

SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SUN, MAR 26.

FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MUCH
OF BOTH NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, SUN-MON, MAR 26-27.

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, SAT-TUE, MAR 25-28.

FLOODING IS LIKELY OR IMMINENT/OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA, SAT-SUN, MAR 25-26.

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THU-FRI, MAR 30-31.

SLIGHT CHANCE OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, THU, MAR 30.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, ARKANSAS, MISSOURI, AND THE EASTERN U.S.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SATURDAY MARCH 25 - WEDNESDAY MARCH 29: AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD,
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MARCH
27TH. DURING THIS TIME, A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH.
ON MARCH 25TH, AN AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING WIND AND HAIL. PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN (2-3 INCHES) ARE FORECAST FROM MARCH 25-28 OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL PARTS OF BOTH THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. AS
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT, OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, MARCH 26-27. LOCALES THAT
ARE DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIR MASS ARE PREDICTED TO EXPERIENCE ICE PELLETS AND
SNOW, WHILE PLACES THAT ARE FARTHER SOUTH ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET RAIN AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN.



AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHEAST, ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MARCH 26TH, WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS AGAIN BEING WIND AND HAIL.



PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON, WESTERN OREGON, AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.



FLOODING IS LIKELY, OR OCCURRING/IMMINENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THIS IS DUE TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH RAINFALL DURING MID-MARCH.



MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES F) ARE PREDICTED TO
LINGER ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA ON MARCH 25-26. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN A COLDER GFS SOLUTION AND A WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION.

FOR THURSDAY MARCH 30 - WEDNESDAY APRIL 05: AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, AND OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THIS
SAME GENERAL REGION (CENTERED NEAR THE ARKLATEX), THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
HIGHLIGHT ANY AREAS WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
500-HPA TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THIS AREA FROM THE WEST.



ON MARCH 30TH, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-PERCENT) OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. WITHIN THIS AREA, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 85TH
PERCENTILE (OR HIGHER) OF THE HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION. FOR MOST AREAS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 80`S, WHILE A FEW LOCALES MAY
PUSH 90 DEG F.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON MARCH 14, SEVERE DROUGHT IS
DESIGNATED ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, ARKANSAS, MISSOURI, AND THE EASTERN U.S. COVERAGE OF SEVERE, OR GREATER
INTENSITY, DROUGHT THROUGHOUT THE CONUS DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM 4 TO 3.95
PERCENT.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

$$




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