Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 032020
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MARCH 03 2015

SYNOPSIS: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CROSS CENTRAL ALASKA WITH COLD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN ANTICIPATED TO BUILD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA.
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
EARLY IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALASKA.

HAZARDS

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
(EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST), FRI-SUN, MAR 6-8.

HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALASKA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE,
FRI-SAT, MAR 6-7.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, FRI-TUE, MAR 6-10.

SIGNIFICANT WAVES FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, SAT, MAR 7.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA,
MON-TUE, MAR 9-10.

FLOODING POSSIBLE OR LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO VALLEY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, WED-SAT, MAR 11-14.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS, WED, MAR 11.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
WED-MON, MAR 11-16.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, WED-FRI, MAR 11-13.

A HIGH RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA,
WED, MAR 11.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR HAWAII (ESPECIALLY MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND), SAT-TUE,
MAR 7-10.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY MARCH 06 - TUESDAY MARCH 10: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHICH LEADS TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12-36 DEGREES) SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST) MAR 6-8. TEMPERATURES
BELOW 0 F ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS ON MAR 6.



ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, ALONG WITH SNOW MELT AND THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD LEADS TO POSSIBLE OR LIKELY RIVER
FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO VALLEY.



LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA LEADING TO HEAVY SNOW (IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN
24 HOURS) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALASKA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE MAR
6-7. HIGH WINDS (IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA MAR 6-10. IN ADDITION, SIGNIFICANT WAVES (IN EXCESS
OF 18 FEET) ARE ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA MAR 7.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA LEADS TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (20-30 DEGREE NEGATIVE ANOMALIES) FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA MAR 9-10.



A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PREDICTED NEAR AND NORTH OF
HAWAII. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL MODELS PREDICT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-5 INCHES FOR
THE ISLANDS IN GENERAL, AND LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 11 - TUESDAY MARCH 17: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC MAR 11-14 DUE TO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. THE
EXPECTATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALSO LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAR 11.



UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LEADS TO A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA MAR 11-16, A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA MAR 11-13, AND A HIGH RISK OF MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA MAR 11.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED FEBRUARY 26, 2015, INDICATES A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2 TO
D4) IN THE PAST WEEK FROM 16.44 TO 16.42 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
FORTY PERCENT OF CALIFORNIA REMAINS DESIGNATED IN THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH MOST REVISIONS MADE TO THE MONITOR THIS WEEK ARE FAIRLY
SMALL, THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES INCLUDE A GENERAL 1-CATEGORY IMPROVEMENT IN
KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE, AND A 1-CATEGORY DEGRADATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AREA.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

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