Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
000
FONT15 KNHC 210300
PWSAT5

HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC THU SEP 21 2017

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   1(15)   X(15)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)  17(38)   2(40)   X(40)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  2   6( 8)  30(38)  20(58)   4(62)   1(63)   X(63)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GRAND TURK     34  4  77(81)  16(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GRAND TURK     50  1  32(33)  40(73)   3(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
GRAND TURK     64  X   9( 9)  36(45)   3(48)   X(48)   1(49)   X(49)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

LES CAYES      34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)

CAPE BEATA     34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

PUERTO PLATA   34 45  42(87)   1(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
PUERTO PLATA   50  2  17(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PUERTO PLATA   64  1   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SANTO DOMINGO  34 68   2(70)   1(71)   1(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PONCE PR       34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

AGUADILLA PR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAN JUAN PR    34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

VIEQUES PR     34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT THOMAS   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.