Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
000
FONT15 KNHC 282055
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   2(14)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   2(16)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   2(14)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   2(14)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   2(15)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   1(15)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   X(18)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   9(25)   1(26)   X(26)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   8(22)   1(23)   X(23)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  13(19)   2(21)   1(22)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   3(20)   2(22)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   2(21)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)   2(20)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   2(17)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   3(13)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)

ANDROS         34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND TURK     34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1  24(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

LES CAYES      34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 64   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)

CAPE BEATA     34 63   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)

PUERTO PLATA   34 20   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

SANTO DOMINGO  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.