Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 281423
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1021 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...VALID 15Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 12Z TUE JUL 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
AMA 25 N CVN 50 SW TCC SAF 25 NNW SKX 20 N ALS 30 W AFF
20 WSW LIC 35 ENE LAA 15 NNW LBL 20 S PYX AMA.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NE CAO 15 SSE CAO 40 N TCC 40 NW TCC 40 NNE LVS RTN
25 SW PUB 20 E LHX 30 NE CAO.

ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THRU THE MORNING
HOURS..THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHEAST CO AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO REMAIN IN THE BEST POSITION FOR CONVECTION
WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL..ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT NEARLY OPPOSITE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FAVORING TRAINING
AND/OR QUASI STATIONARY CELLS.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1
TO 1.25 INCHES WILL STILL BE IN PLACE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
MAINTAINING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.  MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HERE BASED ON THE LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES AND
THE ANTICIPATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATER IN THE PERIOD.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NW CWPD 15 S CWQO 30 ESE CWIY 25 NE MLT 10 SE AUG 10 NE SFM
15 NE AFN AQW 45 SW SCH 10 SE ITH 15 SSW DSV 30 ESE DKK
20 ESE DKK 10 NNW DKK CXVN 15 ENE CYKZ 30 SW CWRK 35 SE CYWA
50 NNW CWJT 35 NW CWPD.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW CYMX 15 NNW CWBS 15 WNW CWTN 20 NW CWST 30 ESE CWST
55 N GNR GNR 50 SW GNR 15 WSW BML 10 SE MPV RUT 10 WNW GFL
25 E GTB 20 WSW CYMX.

A LONGER TERM THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK TO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD HELP FOCUS BROAD SCALE AND DEEP LAYERED ASCENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF ITS PATH.  BETWEEN THE MOIST INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE STRONG DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN..KEPT THE LOW END MODERATE RISK FROM UPSTATE NY INTO THE
PARTS OF VT/NH AND THE WEST FACE OF THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS.


...CA/SRN NV/AZ/NM..SW UT...

CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES THIS MORNING..AND
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING.  PWS REMAIN HIGH
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION..AND THIS IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE ALONG WITH
RATHER SLOW MOVING CELLS WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS
AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED RUNOFF/FLOODING PROBLEMS.

TERRY

$$




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