Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 110255
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI JUL 11 2014 - 00Z SAT JUL 12 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


 ...NRN NEB..SD..MN..NRN IA...

SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR POTNL HEAVY TO ISOLD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONCERNS ACRS PARTS OF NRN NEB INTO SRN/ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA
OVERNIGHT AS DEVELOPING STORMS OVER WRN NEB EXPAND EWD ACRS NRN
NEB INTO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SWLY JET AND AXIS OF INCREASING
PWS..AOA 1.75 INCHES.  UA SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAP OVER SRN NEB
THIS EVENING BUT POOL OF SOME VERY HI CAPES THAT SHOULD GET
RELEASED THIS EVENING FARTHER N ACRS NRN NEB AND SD ALONG AXIS OF
HIER PWS AND INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT 85H FLOW.  WHILE THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY DEVELOPING EWD ACRS NRN
NEB INTO SRN SD..THE STRENGTHENING 85H SWLY FLOW OF OVER 40 KTS
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY ELEVATED TSTMS FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO NE SD INTO MN.  DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE WHERE THE
MAIN HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL TEND TO FOCUS AS THERE COULD BE
MULTIPLE BANDS AND MUCH OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN LARGE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE
QPF MAXIMA.  DO THINK POTNL EXISTS FOR SOME 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS IN A
COUPLE HRS WHICH MAIN CAUSE SOME ISOLD RUNOFF PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT.

...NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

A TRAINING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS LED TO 2-5" OF RAINFALL
THROUGH 02Z ACROSS NORTHEAST SC PER THE NSSL QPE. MODEST
INSTABILITY (MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND INFLOW ACROSS THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERPETUATING
THE LIFE OF THE TRAINING BAND THROUGH ABOUT 100 AM. HOURLY RAIN
RATES 2 TO 2.5 INCHES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING

SULLIVAN/HURLEY
$$




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