Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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710
FXUS04 KWBC 140712
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID FEB 14/1200 UTC THRU FEB 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH FROM OREGON INTO WASHINGTON BETWEEN 12Z/14 TO
12Z/15 AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO CNTRL BRITISH COLUMBIA TODAY. THE
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ALIGN WELL WITH THE LATEST BLENDED TPW
LOOPS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...SWWD BACK
TOWARD THE DATELINE AND TROPICAL WEST PACIFIC. THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY 12Z/15 INTO
WASHINGTON...BUT PWAT ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE +2
TO +3 RANGE. THERE WAS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF THE 00Z
NAM/GFS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR WPC QPF...INDICATING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE WA CASCADES...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND ALONG THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OREGON
COAST RANGE...NORTHWARD TO THE OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND TO THE
BLUE MOUNTAINS OF NERN OREGON...BITTERROOTS...SALMON RIVER AND
PORTIONS OF THE SAWTOOTH OF IDAHO.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY...

A WEAKENING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL-NRN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY MON
MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED AS PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN
0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES THROUGH 12Z/15. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ONGOING
ACROSS CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME TOWARD
THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS BROADEN. OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT ON THE LIGHT SIDE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODEL AGREEMENT
WAS GENERALLY GOOD FOR THIS SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BLEND OF
THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF USED PRIMARILY.  SEE THE QPFHSD FOR
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER INFORMATION.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MS VALLEY AND LOWER TN VALLEY REGION...

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS SUN NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS
NERN TEXAS BY 12Z/15 ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST-EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN 00Z-12Z MONDAY...LOW
LEVEL FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE PWATS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO NEAR 1 INCH WITH
MEAN FLOW FROM THE WSW...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW STEMMING
FROM SWRN LOUISIANA INTO CNTRL TO ERN TENNESSEE. UP UNTIL
12Z/15...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS
THAN 500 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT A NARROW STRIPE OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-12Z...ORIENTING FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS. FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...SOME IN FROZEN FORM...WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE INTO KENTUCKY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...12Z
14-15...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS INTO
THE 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE. MODEL PREFERENCES WERE TOWARD THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS...PER THE PMDHMD...BUT STILL SOME MINOR LOW
PLACEMENT AND TIMING DIFFERENCES TO CONTEND WITH. A BLEND WAS USED
TO AVERAGE OUT THESE DIFFERENCES.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 479336 485332 488322 492317 495310 498291 499289 501290
      504293 507291 509287 519271 523260 523246 522242 520238
      514229 506214 505207 511211 514210 516211 518217 522225
      525230 531224 535217 536210 537201 538193 536188 532181
      527172 524165 518159 515156 512151 507143 504137 498132
      489122 485113 483109 483105 481097 476091 474087 474082
      474076 472073 469064 465053 467049 471047 472043 470038
      458023 442002 436997 434998 435002 439007 444016 443022
      439023 436021 432021 430022 430028 429032 427034 423032
      420034 417031 414031 411028 402032 396032 393033 391036
      391038 394041 397044 410047 413048 415049 416051 414055
      409055 400054 392056 386060 381065 380069 381074 383077
      387080 394086 396087 400086 406079 416078 419072 419062
      419056 421053 423057 425064 428062 427058 428052 430052
      432054 438058 440062 440067 438070 434071 444080 446083
      447087 446090 439092 435094 432090 426086 424089 425091
      428099 429101 426102 421104 416111 414112 411110 410105
      408100 406100 405106 401113 403116 406119 415124 417125
      417129 415138 413149 412162 413166 416168 421175 443202
      448202 452200 458195 463186 468177 470174 474174 480176
      486182 489186 492191 490197 488198 481199 474200 469202
      443211 426207 422207 418209 415213 415218 420228 422229
      423226 426227 426232 424235 413232 407236 405238 404242
      406249 413251 420255 429257 444258 458258 464259 466262
      466265 466269 465276 464302 464308 465313 471322 473329
      475333 479336
 0.01 536968 537949 536941 535935 534894 533875 532869 531862
      530857 529851 527845 524841 515835 510835 507836 505838
      498842 489848 478844 474841 471838 466834 462829 451821
      456820 456816 455813 450813 445816 441814 438810 424794
      420790 415787 404781 400780 395777 385767 380759 379757
      376757 372759 368763 364765 359765 356762 355759 351753
      346754 347763 349769 348776 349787 348794 348802 350818
      349823 349830 351837 351846 351852 348856 344862 339867
      334869 330873 328876 325878 319880 307884 300890 294897
      288904 284905 280905 274906 269908 262908 251913 247919
      248921 255925 261926 265927 272928 276935 281939 286941
      297945 301947 304951 308956 311962 315967 322969 334974
      337976 341973 347966 348962 352961 357963 362963 366961
      370956 372952 376947 380946 380951 380956 379961 379963
      381966 382977 386975 386969 386965 388961 388948 389943
      394940 398938 403936 405938 409939 411942 415947 419951
      423955 432962 436967 440971 456981 467986 471987 476989
      507991 510992 512994 518994 524994 528992 531987 533982
      536968
 0.01 456123 455118 451119 444121 439117 432123 426129 424131
      424136 424142 425148 427151 432152 433148 435141 440132
      442130 447130 450129 454125 456123
 0.01 432677 431669 429663 425652 422648 418644 413645 408650
      405660 404665 404673 408684 411688 414696 416700 420702
      424703 427700 428694 430689 432677
 0.01 438765 436763 434763 431764 429766 429769 430771 432776
      432780 433785 434787 435787 436782 436780 435775 435770
      436768 438765
 0.01 341777 340770 337768 333765 330765 328766 313779 308781
      304779 299777 293776 287770 283771 278775 273783 263787
      256793 252797 252800 255801 262801 276800 294807 298809
      303808 308810 315809 318808 322804 326800 330797 334794
      336790 338785 340779 341777
 0.25 515267 517255 515245 512236 508227 501214 494206 485202
      479203 472206 469207 463208 459208 458212 452214 444215
      435216 433218 431221 432224 434230 438231 441229 446229
      448231 446232 439235 434237 431240 431244 448244 455244
      459245 464247 469250 472253 476260 477269 477281 476294
      475306 476315 478319 480321 482319 484315 486307 487294
      487276 490275 496277 503282 506280 510277 514271 515267
 0.25 525193 521177 515171 509170 504166 498163 490160 484153
      481149 482146 486147 489144 489138 484131 479128 475127
      473129 467135 461138 456141 451146 448148 444149 441151
      439153 435158 435163 438165 444166 445177 441187 447193
      449195 453196 456189 460184 463181 463175 461171 460168
      463167 466167 472168 478168 482170 488174 492179 495187
      497190 500193 502194 505191 507189 510190 514193 522196
      525193
 0.25 488231 487228 486225 482223 479222 476222 474223 472223
      470225 471228 473229 476230 478230 480231 483233 485232
      488231
 0.25 451230 449229 448229 449230 450230 451230
 0.25 465107 462105 456104 452103 450098 445098 441099 434103
      431105 427106 423109 422115 418116 422118 431116 438113
      443114 447113 450110 454109 464109 465107
 0.25 448075 448074 446073 446072 445071 444072 445074 445075
      446076 448077 448075
 0.25 417907 417898 415891 415889 409886 407892 406899 406903
      405908 407915 412919 414917 415914 417907
 0.25 412071 412070 411068 411066 410065 409064 407064 405064
      403064 403065 401067 403069 403070 405071 406072 408074
      409073 410072 412071 412071
 0.25 403074 403072 403070 401070 399071 397073 397074 398076
      399077 400076 401075 403074 403074
 0.25 398064 399062 398061 397062 396063 394064 394065 396065
      398065 398064
 0.25 389856 385837 382824 380814 379808 376805 370804 367806
      365811 361819 358838 353859 348875 344884 342889 342893
      336909 330929 327936 325945 324951 325956 327962 329965
      335968 339967 341963 348944 350936 352926 355914 360907
      363906 365909 370915 373919 378919 381916 383911 380902
      379898 379892 379884 380880 381875 383870 386869 388865
      389856
 0.50 512266 513258 511251 508243 507234 501223 498216 494210
      490207 484205 477206 471208 467210 462210 456214 451216
      440217 437219 436222 436225 439227 449227 456226 459227
      457230 448234 442236 440239 442241 453242 460242 468244
      472246 476251 480258 482265 483266 485263 487261 489262
      498274 502275 504271 510269 512266
 0.50 502256 502251 501246 496236 495233 492229 489226 484223
      480221 474221 468225 466229 469231 478231 481234 483235
      484233 487236 490242 494251 498259 499260 501259 502256
 0.50 507177 507176 506174 505173 504172 503171 502170 501170
      499169 497169 496169 495169 494170 493171 494171 495172
      497174 498176 500177 502177 503178 505178 506178 507177
 0.50 483299 482296 482294 482291 483289 483288 481286 480288
      480290 480293 480295 480297 480298 480300 480303 480304
      481303 481301 483299 483299
 0.50 486136 484134 482133 481134 479134 478134 477137 479138
      480138 482139 484139 485138 486136 486136
 0.50 475161 476157 474154 469149 462147 455149 452153 448160
      448168 447175 450178 448180 443185 444189 449190 450193
      453193 456186 460182 463178 462176 456173 455169 455165
      459161 464162 471163 475161
 0.50 376862 377853 376844 374842 371840 368835 366833 363833
      361838 359846 358854 350881 348888 346894 339906 331932
      327945 327950 328954 333958 337957 341952 344946 346941
      353912 358899 361892 364894 365901 367903 369901 370892
      372884 374881 374873 376862
 1.00 492219 491215 488211 483209 478209 470211 463213 455216
      452218 448221 449223 453222 461226 468222 475219 479219
      485220 489221 492219
 1.00 483247 484245 483243 483242 482240 482239 481237 480236
      479234 478234 476233 474234 473234 472235 471236 471238
      472240 473241 473242 475243 476244 478245 478246 479247
      481247 482247 483247
 1.00 460237 458235 457235 455235 454236 453236 451236 450237
      451238 453239 454239 456239 458238 460238 460237
 1.00 459180 459179 457179 456182 457182 459180 459180
 1.00 359883 357882 355883 352886 350890 349894 346901 341908
      339917 336928 338932 341930 344923 348912 351903 353894
      357885 359883
 1.50 489218 486213 481211 476211 471213 467214 461216 456219
      457222 460224 463223 467222 472219 477217 483218 489218
 1.50 479241 479239 479237 477235 475237 475238 476240 477241
      478242 479241
 2.00 483217 483214 481212 477212 472214 468215 465216 461218
      458219 462222 466221 469220 473216 477216 482216 483217

$$





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