Quantitative Precipitation Statement
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FSUS46 KLOX 181304
QPSLOX

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
447 AM PST WED JAN 18 2017

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR
INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 0400 ON DAY 1 ONLY.

LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT.

THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: WED JAN 18 2017 THROUGH WED JAN 25 2017.

&&
                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY...

LSRC1:CAMBRIA                        LGT    LGT    0.1    0.1   |   0.7    0.5
SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA                LGT    LGT    0.1    0.1   |   0.5    0.5
NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE                     LGT    LGT    LGT    LGT   |   0.4    0.5

SLO: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.26-0.49    FTHLS/MTNS 0.26-0.49
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  1600-2200
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES

&&
                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...

SIYC1:SANTA MARIA CITY               LGT    LGT    0.1    0.1   |   0.5    0.5
SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO          0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.2    0.5
GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM                  LGT    LGT    LGT    LGT   |   0.4    0.8
SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS                LGT    LGT    LGT    LGT   |   0.3    0.7
SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA COUNTY BUILDING  LGT    LGT    LGT    LGT   |   0.3    0.7

SBA: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.26-0.49    FTHLS/MTNS 0.26-0.49
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  1900-0100
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES

&&
                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

VENTURA COUNTY...

FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON                   0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.2    0.7
HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON                  0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   LGT    0.4
MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM                   0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.3    0.8
VTUC1:VENTURA COUNTY GOVT CENTER     0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.2    0.7
MORC1:MOORPARK COUNTY YARD           0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.2    0.7
CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH                 0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   0.2    0.8

VTU: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.26-0.49    FTHLS/MTNS 0.26-0.49
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  2200-0400
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES

&&
                                    04-07  07-10  10-13  13-16  |  16-22  22-04

LOS ANGELES COUNTY...

WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT (MT WILSON) 0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   LGT    0.4
BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM                 0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   LGT    0.3
PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM                    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   LGT    0.3
FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE           0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   LGT    0.4
SAUC1:SAUGUS                         0.0    0.0    LGT    LGT   |   LGT    0.3
CQT  :LOS ANGELES DOWNTOWN (USC)     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   LGT    0.5
MLUC1:BIG ROCK MESA                  0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0   |   0.2    0.9

LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.26-0.49    FTHLS/MTNS 0.26-0.49
                      EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN  2200-0400
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS: YES

&&

DISCUSSION:

IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN THREE STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. STEADY
RAIN SHOULD PUSH INTO VENTURA COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND INTO LOS
ANGELES COUNTY TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL
COAST TONIGHT...BUT NOT UNTIL MID MORNING THURSDAY ACROSS LOS
ANGELES COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, BUT THERE COULD BE RAINFALL
INTENSITIES OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR DURING THE PEAK
OF THE EVENT. RAINFALL INTENSITIES COULD BE BRIEFLY HIGHER IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST
MINOR MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND AROUND THE RECENT BURN AREAS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.75 INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCAL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET TO START...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5500 OR 6000 FEET.

THE SECOND STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MOSTLY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM THAT STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 3 INCHES IN FAVORED TERRAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE A COLDER STORM, WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS,
POSSIBLY DOWN TO 4000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE THIRD STORM MAY BE THE WETTEST, AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, BUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES...AND LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT STORM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IN FAVORED TERRAIN.

&&

DB



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