Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 090600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is along 26.5N82W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center
that is near 24.5N95W, to 20N97W. N-to-NE gale-force winds with
frequent gusts to 40 knots and sea heights ranging from 8 feet
to 16 feet, to the north of 26N to the W OF 90W. Expect NW-to-N
gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 15 feet
to the south of 26N to the west of the cold front. Please read
the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more
details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau
near 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 06N22W
05N32W, and to the equator along 47W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 03N to 06N between 30W and 43W. widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N southward from
30W eastward. isolated moderate from 10N southward remainder of
area from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front
passes through 32N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Lake Okeechobee
in South Florida, to the central Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary from the central Gulf waters, to a 1015 mb
low pressure center that is near 25N95W. A cold front continues
from the low center to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. A
stationary front continues from 20N96W, northwestward across
Mexico. A cold front extends from a 1015 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 32N41W, to 28N50W and 28N57W. A
dissipating stationary front continues from 28N57W to 28N60W,
across the NW Bahamas, into the Straits of Florida. The
stationary front becomes more active from the Straits of Florida
into the south central Gulf of Mexico, to 22N93W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to
the south of the line 28N80W 25N91W 24N95W 22N98W.

Surface high pressure passes through west Texas, into the
coastal plains of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are forecast to start to blow
during the next 6 hours or so in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the
Eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the
Eastern Pacific Ocean HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...and the Eastern Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM
27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC,
KVQT, KGHB, KGRY, KATP and KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR/IFR and light rain in the deep south of Texas. MVFR
in Hebbronville. light rain in Bay City, Angleton/Lake Jackson,
and Beaumont/Port Arthur. from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA: VFR.
FLORIDA: MVFR in Marathon in the Florida Keys and at the Key
West International Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
that is from 10N to 20N between 65W and 75W. A surface trough is
along 16N66W 13N67W 10N67W. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 18N between
59W and 70W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and
parts of Central America from 18N southward between 73W and 89W.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1021 mb high
pressure center, that is near 25N58W, across the Bahamas to Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W 10N79W, beyond southern Costa
Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation:
Isolated moderate from 15N southward from 75W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
09/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 1.86 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE-to-E wind flow is moving across the island. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow surrounds the island.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, across the area. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible across Hispaniola, and in the coastal waters and
coastal plains, in areas of broken low level to middle level
clouds.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceiling.
Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that an anticyclonic
circulation center will be in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea
and a cyclonic circulation center will be about 120 nm to the
south of Hispaniola. N wind flow will move across Hispaniola
during the first half to two-thirds of day one, followed by
cyclonic wind flow with either the cyclonic circulation center
or an open trough. Day two will consist of the trough moving
eastward, bringing NW wind flow across Hispaniola. The NW
Caribbean Sea anticyclonic circulation center will move to a
position that is about 90 nm to the south of Haiti, by the end
of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that an E-to-
W oriented Atlantic Ocean ridge will range from 120 nm to 240 nm
to the north of Hispaniola during the next two days. Expect SE
wind flow across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an E-to-W oriented Atlantic
Ocean ridge will range from 120 nm to 320 nm to the north of
Hispaniola during the next two days. Expect mostly SE wind flow,
during the next two days, along with a possible inverted
troughs about halfway through the 48-hour time period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 27W from 26N beyond 32N. The
trough supports a stationary front that is along 32N24W to a
1016 mb low pressure center that is near 31N27W. A cold front
continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 28N30W and
26N36W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
20N northward from 30W eastward.

A surface ridge is along 25N22W, to 21N37W, to the 1021 mb high
pressure center that is near 25N58W, and then across the
Bahamas, to Cuba.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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