Tropical Weather Discussion
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938
AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA STARTING AT 0600 UTC THIS MORNING THROUGH 1800 UTC THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH MON MORNING. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 07N16W TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 02N30W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 09W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES THE FL KEYS NEAR 25N81W TO 27N94W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS
PRODUCING FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF N OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER THE E GULF
MAINLY MODERATE SE WINDS COVER THE W GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE GULF WITH THE WESTERN END
OF THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
THE NW GULF. MAINLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W
TO JAMAICA TO NEAR 19N81W. THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SHOWERS
WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ALSO S OF 19N W OF
83W...INCLUDING BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. FRESH NE WINDS ARE
N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTING SHOWERS E OF 70W
OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WELL BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N69W TO 27N74W TO
25N80W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N59W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 17N45W SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N
TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N32W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N61W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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