Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS NEAR 22.0N 97.3W AT
03/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO
24N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THE FORECAST IS
FOR DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TOMORROW MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W TO 13N32W TO
9N33W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N50W 10N52W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ALSO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W...PASSING JUST TO
THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N66W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N66W.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE AREA OF 15N67W NORTHWARD
TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
OF TODAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N76W...
ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 10N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS...
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 32N66W-24N77W-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN WHICH OF THE FEATURES BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 79W
EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W
WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N25W TO 5N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N34W
TO 7N42W TO 10N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE AREA THAT IS FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD... IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA...THANKS TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO
30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KVAF AND KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
FLORIDA...IN TALLAHASSEE...IN PERRY...AND IN SARASOTA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 65W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 24N77W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.48 IN
MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.34 IN TRINIDAD...0.24 IN FREEPORT IN THE
BAHAMAS...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO
RICO... AND 0.10 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA AND IN COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INCLUDING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N66W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 32N71W TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER AND
TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 69W WESTWARD...IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
65W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA
FROM 79W EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W
WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 88W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY
WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND THE RIDGE WILL PUSH WESTWARD...
ENCOMPASSING HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE RIDGE

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 38N31W...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
32N ALSO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N55W 27N40W 28N30W 30N20W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
27N30W 27N44W...TO BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO A
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N41W...TO A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO
30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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