Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221304
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
904 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure over the region this morning will provide hot and
mainly dry conditions today. However, weak surface trough in the
vicinity of the UP could help focus a stray shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s
this morning pooling near the boundary. SBCAPE values forecast to
be over 2000J/kg this afternoon but light wind flow aloft should
keep any tstorms from becoming organized. BUFKIT soundings also
show that it will take some descent lift to get tstorms going,
which doesn`t look like it will happen over most of northern
Lower. High res models do show precipitation developing near the
trough later today anywhere from the Straits to Whitefish
Point...and then on to the Lake Huron shoreline late this
afternoon. Will keep any PoPs low for now.

Record temperatures expected today just about everywhere, should
reach yesterday`s high and maybe a couple degs higher with less
clouds. Many places could hit 90F for the first time this year.
Ironic that Autumn starts at 4:02pm today.

Records for today:

    Record (Year)
GLR  83 (2004)
TVC  90 (1908)
APN  87 (1941)
ANJ  85 (1920)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Record-setting warmth today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air extend from Quebec thru most of the Great Lakes region into
the Ohio Valley early this morning...resulting in unseasonably warm
temps and mainly precip-free conditions across this entire region.
Some shallow patchy fog has develop across our CWA overnight as both
temps and dwpts hover in the 60s. Nearest precip is well upstream
over Minnesota just ahead of an inverted trough associated with deep
low pressure developing to the lee of the Rockies over the Central
Plains.

Shallow patchy fog will quickly dissipate with sunrise as diurnal
mixing commences. With respect to precip chances...certainly
instability will be available for convective development...but
expect focus and moisture will remain upstream of our CWA along and
just ahead of the inverted trough coincident with the 850 mb theta E
ridge. Thus...expect a dry day and mainly dry night with only a
small chance of showers/storms touching the Whitefish Point area
tonight as these features begin to lean into our far northern CWA.

Temps will be downright hot today...especially for late September...
and will likely break max temp records for some locations. Afternoon
highs will range from the mid 80s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the
lower 90s for portions of Northern Lower Michigan. Expect another
muggy night with patchy fog development as temps drop into the 60s
and dwpts hold in the 60s as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

...Record breaking temperatures possible this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: The overall pattern remains nearly unchanged
across the majority of the CONUS through early next week with broad
troughing anchored along the West Coast and longwave ridging
dominating the eastern two-thirds of the country, characterized by
unseasonably high heights over the Great Lakes (500mb heights near
590 DM) for the first few full days of autumn. Surface high pressure
overhead should aid to keep the tightest baroclinic zone and any
attendant precip chances well off to our north and west through at
least early next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Warm and humid weather through
this weekend. High temperatures are expected to remain as much as 20-
25 degrees above normal through at least Sunday. Combined with dew
points in the mid-upper 60s certainly will provide a mid-summer feel
across northern Michigan under mostly sunny skies.

High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are expected to challenge
records at most climate stations. Current record this weekend
include (Sat/Sun):

ANJ: 84(1936)/88(1892)
GLR: 83(2004)/86(2007)
HTL: 88(1937)/86(2007)
TVC: 90(1937)/89(2007)
APN: 89(1937)/89(2007)
PLN: 86(2004)/87(2007)

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Upper ridging remains persistent across the region through early
next week before beginning to break down midweek with quite the
drastic pattern change to follow. As a result, unseasonably warm
temperatures continue Monday-Tuesday before trending much cooler
(near to slightly below normal) toward Wednesday-Thursday, along
with increased rain chances across a majority of northern Michigan.
Plenty of time for the specifics to change, but it certainly looks
like our extended summer will be going by the wayside sooner rather
than later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Residual patchy fog/low stratus will quickly mix out early this
morning...giving way to solid VFR conditions for the rest of today
and tonight as strong high pressure remains firmly in control of
the wx across Northern Lower Michigan. S/SW winds below 10 kts
today will again become light/variable tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Saturday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Saturday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR



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