Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180357
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1157 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Looking over the observations and satellite loops, things seem to
be going as forecasted for the evening. No changes seen for now.
The only things to watch for will be patchy fog, especially south
of M-72, and mainly east of I-75. This area is where the low
temperatures meet or go slightly under the crossover temperatures
(UPS fog method for the dewpoints during the heat of the day.).
Nothing dense is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...High pressure holding on for one more day...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure will continue to slide SE
through the forecast area through the day Tuesday. A weak cold front
will be knocking on the door of our eastern Upper counties by
Tuesday evening.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Nothing real pressing. Expect winds to
veer more southerly/southwesterly this evening as the center of
surface high pressure moves to our east. This will bring a warmer,
more humid airmass tomorrow. Clouds will increase NW to SE
throughout the afternoon as the cold front approaches, with shower
chances increasing similarly over night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

...Chances for more showers and thunderstorms at times...

High Impact Weather Potential...Nothing looks too significant. Will
need to monitor thunderstorm potential through the period.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Central NOAM flow regime becoming a bit
more progressive as northern extent of western ridge has succumbed
to strong energy rotating into Western Canada. This "flattened"
ridge will center itself over the central and southern plains in the
coming days, with a rapid flow regime developing on its northern
periphery across the northern Conus and southern Canada. Pieces of
energy rotating into the Pacific Northwest will quickly latch on to
this fast flow, eventually racing across our area during the mid-
week period, and bringing at least a chance for a few
showers/thunderstorms along with them.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Temperature trends and
addressing that shower and thunderstorm potential.

Details...Lead energy and its attendant cold front arrive later
Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday, with a narrow tongue
of deeper moisture running along and just ahead of them. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop to our west Tuesday, attempting
to spill into our area Tuesday night. Simple pattern recognition of
unfavorable frontal timing suggests a steady weakening trend to this
activity, and really starting to wonder just how much rain will be
realized across our area. Thunder threat also appears muted, with
any severe threat looking to remain well upstream. That same
uncertainty continues with regards to additional rain chances
Wednesday and Thursday, this despite arrival of that second piece of
energy by early Thursday. Deepest moisture, greatest instability,
and placement of low level jet all suggest greatest activity staying
to our southwest, which in turn, would really negate any good
moisture transport into the northern Lakes. Chancy shower/storm
mention will suffice for now, but like the usual during the warm
season, actual conditions will likely be much drier than current
forecast implies. Of course, temperatures at least partially
dependent on shower coverage and the extent of cloud cover that will
be realized. Highs in the upper 70s to lower/middle 80s about as
good a starting point as any for now.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The H5 pattern shows generally zonal flow through the first half of
the extended period...becoming troughy over the great lakes late
Sunday into Monday. There will be some generally weak glancing shots
of energy moving through the flow Friday through Saturday, though I
think we`ll skate by largely rain free those days.  However, Sunday
into Monday...as the aforementioned troughing swings through, the
weather will become more unsettled.  Late Sunday looks like the best
shot for rain during this time.  Temperatures will be running right
along with climo through Saturday...and then a bit below as cooler
air drops in with the troughing for the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Not many concerns for the next 24 hours. first is the fog issue
for the night. Some of the guidance is indicating that it may fog
enough to lower visibility around MBL overnight. It is possible
with the light winds and the cooler air draining into the Manistee
River Valley, and in locations in the SE portion of the forecast
area(i.e. Y31, HTL, and OSC), but away from the TAF sites. Won`t
discount it at the other sites, but it seems unlikely given the
moisture that was left over from earlier today.

Otherwise, the chance of showers, mainly, will begin to increase
as a cold front presses into the Upper Great Lakes, Tuesday
evening. It looks like the chances are best (around 30-40 percent)
at TVC, PLN, and MBL through 06z. APN won`t see any appreciable
chances until after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night
as high pressure slides east of Michigan. A approaching cold front
will move into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing us our
next chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will increase with
the frontal passage, backing from southwesterly to northwesterly by
Wednesday morning, but should remain under SCA criteria.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...KB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...AM



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