Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 161729
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
129 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW TO EASTERN UPPER AND A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY BUT COOL WEATHER TO
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SMALL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MUCH OF
ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND. SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS WING OF WAA MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

SHARP MID LEVEL THERMAL/TROUGH AXIS IN THE PROCESS OF PROGRESSING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING...PART OF A LARGER SCALE LONG
WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
CONUS. RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST WITH ANOTHER
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

HERE AT HOME...BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. HAD SOME RESIDUAL MESOSCALE LAKE CONVECTION
(THAT HAD ORIGINS FROM YESTERDAYS STCU FIELD OVER NRN WISCONSIN/
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN) ROLL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME VERY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN. THATS PRETTY MUCH DONE AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A THIN CORRIDOR OF STRATUS/STCU STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND APPEARS
ATTACHED TO TERRAIN IN EASTERN ANTRIM COUNTY. ALSO SOME SCT LAKE
STCU CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SW COUNTIES.
JUST YOUR TYPICAL MID APRIL LAKE EFFECT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...FIRST PART OF THE DAY STARTS OUT UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SLOWLY WORKS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL HANG
ON TO AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS/STCU OVER NRN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR A
LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE RECENT RAIN...THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME FOG OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY MORNING WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED/TEMPS DROPPED. THEN...AN INTERESTING LITTLE SYSTEM FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
WYOMING THIS MORNING SLATED TO ADVANCE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THIS EVENING...THEN DAMPEN AND LIFT UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. NICE TIGHT LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SWINGS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN WHICH WILL BRING A COMPACT DEFORMATION AXIS (COUPLED WITH
MODEST UPPER JET FORCING) AND A PERIOD OF HEFTIER SNOW FROM
MINNESOTA THROUGH NW WISCONSIN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTER
FOR THE GREAT LAKES JUST WON/T GIVE UP.

FOR NRN LOWER/ERN UPPER MICHIGAN...SYSTEM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE QUITE
THE IMPACT AS ONCE THOUGHT. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS CERTAINLY TRENDED
THE SYSTEM TRACK A BIT FURTHER WESTWARD AND SLOWER...AND AGAIN DRAGS
STRONGEST DEFORMATION/UPPER JET FORCING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR US...DECENT
WARM ADVECTION WING DOES DEVELOP AND SWINGS THROUGH NRN LOWER INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BUT...DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL LARGELY KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE BETTER UPPER JET FORCING AND TOP DOWN SATURATION
FINALLY GETS SNOW GOING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO THE TIP
OF THE MITT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERSISTING THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF TONIGHT. BUT AGAIN...HEFTIER SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT
AREAS BACK TO THE WEST. PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MAY PICK
UP 2 TO 3 INCHES (MAYBE A 4 INCH AMOUNT) WHERE SNOW PERSISTS THE
LONGEST. BUT NOT PLANNING ANY TYPE OF HEADLINES WITH THIS EVENT AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

...NOT AS COLD AS RECENTLY WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE A LITTLE LATER THURSDAY RIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN TALKED
ABOUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG WARM-UP IS
IN THE CARDS ANY TIME SOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH EASTER SUNDAY HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THURSDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING EASTERN
UPPER A LITTLE MORE SNOW...WITH A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
FROM OUR SOUTH EXPECTED TO BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR 40 FAR NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTHEAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. HOWEVER...A WEAK SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR A LITTLE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND RAIN
FRIDAY TO SOUTHEAST ZONES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 30S SOUTH.
HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL
CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DRAGS A
WEAK FRONT ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
LIKELY FOLLOWED BY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
EASTER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST
SOME RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH THE AIRMASS
REMAINS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATER APRIL. SO NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE SEASONABLE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY BE THE RULE INTO THURSDAY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS LOWERING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT PLN THIS EVENING.

WINDS...GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS TODAY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
25KTS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING
IN LLWS AT PLN/TVC/MBL THRU 14Z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...JK






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