Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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496
FXUS63 KAPX 150307
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1007 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Only "interesting" weather of note is band of Lake Superior
induced stcu dropping slowly south under strong low level
subsidence inversion. Simply see little reason this trend won`t
continue, especially targeting northeast lower and eastern upper
Michigan through the early morning hours. Have trended the
forecast to this more cloudier scenario. Will need to watch for
additional low cloud development further southwest as some progs
show rapid development of stratus overnight. Otherwise, gist of
inherited forecast remains...a quiet and seasonably chilly night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Nuisance flurries/snow showers across portions of eastern Upper...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split flow aloft across the western third
of the country is evident this afternoon with a cutoff low off the
coast of Baja California visible on water vapory imagery. Upper-
level flow congeals across the Great Lakes/East Coast with a 140+ kt
250 mb jet max overhead quickly racing off to the east. Broad area
of surface high pressure extends from the Northeast westward through
the Plains. The weak surface trough draped from southern Ontario
through far northern Michigan that aided in early day flurries
across the Tip of the Mitt is making its exit stage right...only to
be followed by surface high pressure becoming centered squarely
overhead tonight into Sunday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minor lake effect snow showers/flurries
across sections of eastern Upper late this afternoon/early evening.

Morning southwesterly flow lake induced flurries/enhanced cloudiness
across the Tip of the Mitt/Straits continued to diminish this
morning with skies becoming mostly clear across a majority of
northern Lower this afternoon, resulting in not too shabby of a day
as temperatures moderate through the mid-upper 20s. Boundary layer
flow is expected to veer from its current WSW/W flow to more
northwesterly late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Thus, tapping a longer fetch across Lake Superior and introducing a
lake driven flurry and/or scattered snow shower threat across
sections of Chippewa County through the first half of tonight. This
afternoon`s visible satellite already shows clouds beginning to
stream into far northern Chippewa with lake clouds developing east
of Isle Royale in central Lake Superior as winds have already
flipped northwest as you head further north. Will continue with low
end chance PoPs across that area, mainly from 21-06z, although hi-
res guidance continues to wane on the idea of anything more than a
few flurries. Any accumulation would be minor, perhaps a few tenths
of an inch at best...if any at all. Otherwise, another cold night
across northern Lower with interior locales falling back into the
single digits and teens expected as you head into the Great Lakes
collar counties.

Little in the way of concern to end the weekend as high pressure
dominates Sunday`s sensible weather. Low level inversion may keep
skies cloudier initially, but will continue the trend of decreasing
clouds throughout the day. Temperatures creeping up another couple
of degrees as highs top out in the upper 20s to 30 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Wintry mix Monday night and Tuesday morning...

High impact weather potential...mixed wintry precip, including some
freezing rain, Monday night into Tuesday morning.

High pressure will drift ese-ward from Lk Erie toward the mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. Low pressure will lift nne-
ward from TX, reaching nw MO by late Monday. Warm/moist will surge
northward between these systems. Could see some light precip get
going Monday afternoon, but much better chances will be Monday night
(especially late) into Tuesday (especially early). Precip trends,
including type and amounts, are the main concerns.

Sunday night...quiet, with a prominent surface ridge over southern
lower MI, and building 500mb heights ahead of an upper low in nw TX.
Lingering strato-cu could still be seen in the evening in eastern
upper MI, and overnight mid/high clouds will start to thicken into
southern sections ahead of the next system. Min temps mainly in the
teens, with some around 20f readings on the coastlines.

Monday...deep warm advection and gradual moist advection continues,
as the upper low lifts across central KS. Ascent will be strongest
above 10k ft, and dry air below 750mb will be an impediment to
seeing precip. Cloud cover will very much be on the increase, though
most areas will still have a partly to even mostly sunny morning.
Nam is relatively bullish in developing a warm advection wing of
precip into nw lower MI during the afternoon. This could well be
overdone, but a smallish chance of light precip in nw lower late in
the day is reasonable (and consistent with neighbors and the going
forecast). Coming at the end of an impactful (for January) diurnal
heating cycle, and without a warm nose aloft just yet, this would be
rain, with perhaps some snow mixing in.

Max temps in the 30s to near 40f.

Monday night/Tuesday...increasing warm/moist advection will be seen
as stacked low moves nne toward Superior. Spotty light precip will
be seen Mon evening, but the main surge will be overnight into Tue
morning, before a dry slot cuts off heavier precip. The above timing
is coincident with the arrival of a substantial warm nose aloft
(925mb temps progged to almost 10c over TVC by daybreak Tue). The
lower pops on the leading will be snow and eventually sleet, but as
pops ramp up to categorical the p-type question becomes rain or
freezing rain. This is not a great fzra setup, but we will likely
have some. We`re coming out of a relatively mild day, and surface
warm advection will try to hold us up. Evap cooling is the main
player in dragging surface temps back below freezing, and in most
areas it should be able to do that, though not by much. Even the
always-chilly Nam has surface temps near 30-31 in the freezing rain
areas. (And there`s a big difference between freezing rain at 31f vs
at, say, 26f.)

Most areas will have a mention of fzra. Thanks to downsloping ese
surface wind, Frankfort/MBL will be the 1st to change to plain rain.
That will expand ne-ward late in the overnight, and eventually nw-
ward from Saginaw Bay, with the changeover accelerating Tue morning
as diurnal heating assists. By afternoon, only mention of a mix will
be up in parts Chippewa Co, and by then pops will be dwindling
anyways. Could see a switch to drizzle more than rain in the
afternoon, but will refrain from adding this complication at this
time.

A little soon to get too committed to snow/ice totals, but will take
a stab. Snow and sleet amounts an inch or less northern lower,
around an inch eastern upper. Ice amounts 0.10 to 0.20 over the
interior of northern lower MI, 0.10 or less elsewhere.

Min temps lower 20s to around 30f. Max temps mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

High Impact Weather Potential: Falling temperatures Tuesday night
could bring a change from rain to snow. This could also refreeze wet
surfaces from rain earlier in the day.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning look to be the most troublesome
days for the extended period, at least right now. After rain most of
the day Tuesday, temperatures will drop back below freezing
overnight, with any lingering showers changing over to snow. This
raises some concern over re-freezing on road surfaces. There are
hints of another system over the weekend that could again produce
daytime rain and night snow, but there is very little confidence
with this right now. European guidance has a rather impressive rex
block setting up late in the period which would keep us dry really
after Wednesday. While it was pretty persistent for a few runs, this
is quite anomalous for this time of year (90th percentile). Heights
in the vicinity of 560dm are more typical of May or June. I`m not
fully buying either solution at this point, and indeed the newest
runs of the Euro seem to be backing off a bit. Removing this block
could allow the system late in the week a better chance of affecting
our area. Will leave the consensus idea of low chance PoPs for the
weekend.

Perhaps the bigger story will be the relative warmth headed this
way. Overnight lows will still drop below freezing, but highs for
the period will be well above normal. Upper 30s early in the week
will moderate through the weekend with mid to upper 40s by Saturday
not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Band of mvfr stcu expected to drop southeast overnight, impacting
both KPLN and KAPN for a time through the early morning hours. VFR
conditions expected at the other two taf locations. Skies expected
to scatter out during the day Sunday, leaving behind just some
higher level clouds. Light winds through this forecast period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Westerly flow continues this afternoon pushing winds/waves just into
small craft advisory criteria on Whitefish Bay and several Lake
Michigan/Lake Huron nearshore zones. Otherwise, beyond this evening,
light winds should result in headline-free conditions across the
remainder of the nearshore waters through Sunday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...MJG
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MJG



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