Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 300520
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

AREA OF ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME BEFORE PUSHING EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL ONTARIO HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS MAY SEE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT WORKS IT/S WAY THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPDATING THE FORECAST TO SHOW THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER. DON/T BELIEVE THAT THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE ANY BIG IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS...LOW PRESSURE WAS PUSHING THROUGH NW ONTARIO THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING INTO LAKE HURON. A MUCH DIFFERENT
AIR MASS HAS SWEPT IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DEEP DRY
AIR USHERED IN VIA GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH...HELPING SKIES
GO TOTALLY SUNNY...AND QUICKLY. THE COOLING HAS NOT BEEN AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT/HUMIDITY. SFC DEW POINTS WERE
QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 50S...AND ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MAYBE
TOUCH THE UPPER 40S BY EARLY EVENING.

UPSTREAM...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE WAS WORKING IT`S WAY ACROSS WESTERN UPPER/LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS SHOWN ITSELF IN THE FORM OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL UPPER.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH ALL
AREAS HAVING TO LIKELY WAIT A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO NIGHTFALL FOR THE
WINDS TO SUBSIDE...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER INTO
THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH ALL NIGHT...AND
WILL RESULT IN KEEPING THE BL MIXED. THUS...DESPITE COOL AIR
ADVECTION/CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR...LOWS LIKELY TO ONLY DIP TO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...DO CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD...BUT THE
MAJORITY APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH OF EASTERN UPPER. MAYBE A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...BUT FOR ALL INTENTS AND
PURPOSES...WILL JUST GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO END THE WORK
WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: AND NOW...BACK TO OUR
REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAM. TROUGHING WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOMING THE
DOMINATE PLAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES UP INTO HUDSON BAY TO END
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND (AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK). ALL REAL HOT
WEATHER WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...LEAVING MUCH
MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS. THIS PARTICULAR
PATTERN IS NOT A WET ONE...ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCES RACING THROUGH THE
FLOW MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AT
TIMES. WE CAN ONLY HOPE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PARAMETERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

DETAILS: PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS LARGE AND SLOW MOVING GYRE SETS UP SHOP
ACROSS HUDSON BAY. ACTIVE BAROCLINIC AXIS/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
DISPLACED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALSO LOCKED TO OUR NORTH TIED TO THAT HUDSON BAY LOW. THIS LATER
MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE TAPPED FROM TIME TO TIME AS WAVES ROTATE
THROUGH THE FLOW...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN (BUT
LIMITED) INSTABILITY...MAY PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AT
TIMES. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING IS
EVERYTHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE
ENDEAVOR. NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT WILL GO AHEAD
AND CARRY SOME LOWER END RAIN CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. CLOUD TRENDS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE...WITH A DIURNAL
COMPONENT ENHANCED BY WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT MOISTURE FIELDS.
STILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH/EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...WITH MORE OF A MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO SOUTH
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS FOR FIRE WEATHER: WHILE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL BE A COOLER ONE WHEN
COMPARED TO CONDITIONS OF LATE...IT SURE WON`T BE A CHILLY ONE.
PATTERN RECOGNITION SHOWS GREAT SUPPORT FOR DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED
WARMING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPERATURE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUNRISE SIDE.
DEVELOPMENT OF DECENT MIXED LAYER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS...AT LEAST UP TO AND EXCEEDING
CRITICAL LEVELS AT TIMES. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH RH TRENDS.
"DRIEST" AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA THURSDAY...AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH DOWNSLOPE AFFECTS...WILL LIKELY DROP RH VALUES TO JUST ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
A TOUCH MORE MOIST FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL RH FALL-
OFF IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECENT DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER SURE HAS HEIGHTENED THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...AND WILL
FULLY UTILIZE THE 2 OUT OF 3 RULE...KEEPING INHERITED ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WORDING IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
SETTLED INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RESEMBLE VARY SEASONAL LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST
READINGS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS LINGER AROUND 12C...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 9C. RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS CROSSING INTO LAKE
HURON...WITH WSW WINDS GUSTING INTO LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT...AND THUS THERE ARE
NO PLANS TO ALTER CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINES. THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR
WILL RESULT IN NEAR NEUTRAL STABILITY OVER THE LAKES HEADING INTO
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...AND THERE COULD BE A HANDFUL ADDITIONAL OR
CONTINUED ADVISORIES...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE STRAITS AND PRESQUE
ISLE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END BY 4-5PM...AND THE DEEP DRY AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES...OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND WHITEFISH BAY/EASTERN UPPER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LHZ345>347.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...SWR
MARINE...SMD


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