National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 141050
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL THEN WORK
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A RATHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VORTICITY RUNNING SE THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL GUIDE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES OUT OF THE AREA..OF WHICH HAS PICKED UP IN INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN PER LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY. A
PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
RAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WORKING TOWARD
MN...WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING US. UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW MUCH CLOUD SURVIVES...AND WILL KEEP THE NOTION OF
PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY STABLE...OR ON THE RISE INTO
THE LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND THICKENING CLOUDS. THIS IS OUT AHEAD OF AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE 00Z APX SOUNDING FROM
LAST NIGHT SHOWS SUCH A HUGE DRY LAYER BELOW 550MB...AND THE
INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE/WEAKISH DEEP LAYER -DIVQ...DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION VIA H8 LLJ OF 40KTS...IS GETTING EAT UP BY
THIS DRY AIR. THUS...ONLY SPRINKLES ARE DOTTING THE NORTH WOODS.
CERTAINLY NOTHING TO GET HYPED UP ABOUT. THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT...IS WELL BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
PRESSURE AND SYSTEM COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY H8 LLJ. HERE...A
BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS BEING FED/DRIVEN BY THETA-E
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN AN AIR MASS ALOFT FED BY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE/EML AND PWATS JUST SHY OF 1.00".

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOLID THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES OF
EASTERN UPPER...BUT TRENDS WILL BE FOR THINNING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEEING AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA
PRECIPITATION RUNS OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH AND MAKES IT`S
WAY UNDERNEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAKISH UPPER JET WHERE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD FIRE OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY BE
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR US...WILL BE TONIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO ONTARIO. THE H8 LLJ RE-ENERGIZES AND DIRECTS
BEST THETA-E CONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT A MORE WESTERLY H8 LLJ COULD FIRE OFF BETTER
CONVECTION ACROSS NRN LOWER...AND WITH THE LLJ POSSIBLY
ACCELERATED BY LAKE MICHIGAN (AS WE SEE SOMETIMES)...FELT THAT A
HIGHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NEEDED HERE. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS BOOSTED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OFFERING SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR CONVECTION WITH PWATS
OF 1.5" ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND SAME ADVECTED STEEP ELEVATED
LAPSE RATES/EML WITH POTENTIAL SUPPORT BY JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. BUT
HEY...IT`S CONVECTION...AND WHERE IT DECIDES TO FIRE OFF IS NEVER
REALLY KNOWN IN ITS ENTIRETY. ALL AREAS HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. RESPECTABLE 0-6KM BULK AHEAD OF >55KTS WILL BE
OFFSET BY TO SOME DEGREE BY LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY. THAT
SAID...DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF >1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WILL QUICKLY ROLL ON THROUGH...AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO
CAN PRODUCE SOME HAIL...POSSIBLY A SEVERE????

WARM DAYTIME TEMPS AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THOSE AREAS NOT
FEELING A WIND OFF THE COLDER LAKES...AWAY FROM LAKE HURON. HIGHS
HERE WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. NEAR LAKE
HURON...HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S CAN BE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

IN A WORD...SEASONABLE...WHICH SHOULD SIT WELL WITH MOST FOLKS AFTER
THE CRAZY WEATHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE (LIKELY EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY) FOR
MID AND LATE MAY WITH DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM...I.E. NEXT MONDAY. THE MAIN
LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND HOW MUCH IT WILL WARM UP
DURING THE DAY THEN POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXITING
FAR EASTERN ZONES LEAVING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LINGERING
SHOWER OR STORM TO START THE DAY. OTHERWISE...DECREASING
CLOUDS...BREEZY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE
60S TO MIDDLE 70S. DECENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS IN
THE COOL MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT NORTHERN MICHIGAN IS PLACED ON THE WARM SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING BY
TO OUR NORTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TIMING
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT BUT AM
DEFINITELY NOT EXPECTING CONTINUOUS RAINFALL THROUGH THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WARM FRONTAL BAND
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES TO EXIT APN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. TOO SMALL OF A CHANCE FOR CIGS/VSBYS TO GET INTO
THE MVFR RANGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BEHIND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL TURN PARTLY SUNNY WITH
ADDED CLOUD UPSTREAM SET TO ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN AND THERE WILL
BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SE FOR THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT KICK TO
OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW. GUSTS HIGHER OUT AT APN BEFORE BETTER GRADIENT DEPARTS LATER
TODAY...REACHING 20KTS MAX.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THEN
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. A SE FLOW WILL GET ACCELERATED AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT WITH LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AND WHITEFISH BAY
NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. TOO MUCH STABILITY AROUND FOR
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES. AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING WITH
THIS FRONT TO BRING DOWN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO SMALL FOR A HEADLINE JUST
YET. AS A MATTER OF FACT...STABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
FURTHER PROTECTING...TO SOME DEGREE...THE WATER SFC FROM THESE
GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL ADVISORY GUSTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY LAKE HURON AND WHITEFISH BAY WITHIN
BETTER/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT SLACKENS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WHILE COOLER AIR SLIPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE LAKES. THIS WILL DECREASE THE STABILITY...BUT WEAKENING
GRADIENT LEADS TO NO ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS EXPECTED. NO OTHER
MARINE ISSUES FORESEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...SD