Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 270743
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
343 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Improving weather today...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Locally dense fog this
morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight surface/upper-air/satellite
analysis reveals parent low pressure system spinning into Quebec
with a trailing cold front folding down through northern Michigan.
Difficult to pick out the front in surface winds...but does appear
to bisect northern lower Michigan south of the office per APX VAD
wind profile. Several pockets of showers remain along and south of
the front down into central lower Michigan. Cloud cover is
slowly thinning N-S across northern Michigan with high
pressure/drier air trying to nose into the northern lakes region.
But...with the thinning cloud cover...stratus/fog is developing
in it/s wake owing to a very moist boundary layer.

Cold front and last lingering bits of showers will be exiting the
southern part of the CWA through early morning...and have extended
shower chances for the far southern counties through 9 am. Then...
high pressure/drier air will take control of northern Michigan/s
weather...but will take a good part of the day to do so. Morning
stratus/fog will lift into a SCT to possibly BKN CU deck for the
afternoon. But a fair amount of late July sunshine should push
temperatures into the middle and upper 70s.

Tonight...high pressure settles across the northern lakes region
and setting the stage for what looks like a nice stretch of summer
weather for the weekend. Only fly in the ointment (isn`t there
always one)...pesky compact short wave spinning southeastward
through southern Manitoba this morning will be dropping down
through the Great Lakes tonight. Not much weather-wise happening
with this feature...and not much is anticipated (a couple showers
not completely out of the question). But...expect another batch
of cloud cover to work through the region tonight into Friday
morning as a result.

Primary Forecast Concerns...morning fog. Quite a bit of dense fog
across parts of eastern upper Michigan/Straits and into the tip of
the mitt...with fog trying to expand southward behind the clearing
line. May have to hoist dense fog advisory for this morning if it
gets more widespread. Will see how it goes over the next hour or
two...but at the very least will issue a special weather
statement.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Showers Friday morning?...

High Impact Weather Potential...none

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Friday morning a 500 mb low is roughly
over the SW counties of the forecast area (Manistee/Wexford/Benzie)
at 12z. However, the 700-500 mb layer is so dry (Rh< 30%) that the
models don`t have any qpf with it at 12z. GFS and ECMWF then put qpf
over portions of NE lower by 18z. However, having a hard time seeing
this with the sfc high building into the area and the dry air aloft.
850 mb RH is about 75% clouds. Looking at the model soundings the
CAPE looks small (<100 J/kg. So thinking going dry for the morning
and afternoon, looks good. After 18z, with the 500 mb low continuing
to move SE into Lake Erie, The sfc high really takes over,
especially with the 700-500 mb layer RH< 20%. High pressure then
takes over and will remain mostly clear through Sunday morning.

Primary Forecast concerns...Still a little concerned about morning
showers, as showing by the models on Friday. However, if there are
showers, they look to be short lived as the low moves SE, so will go
with the dry forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Precipitation Monday? Wednesday?...

High Impact Weather Potential...

Extended (Sunday through Wednesday)...Sunday will continue dry with
the high pressure over the region. Models have backed off the timing
of the cold front so it will be dry Sunday night as well. Monday`s
blend of pops from the different models make any forecast a low
confidence one. The current model blend on Monday shows a weak front
moving and producing slight chance pops in E Upper. By Monday
evening, the weak front/trough looks to lose its lift, and the
chances drop again. So dry with high pressure looks to remain
through Tuesday. Tuesday night, the next front looks to bring a
chance for showers, which will last through Wednesday as the front
moves through the forecast area. The GFS is more bullish with this
feature than the ECMWF, so will see if we get anything with this
passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 218 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Cold front is currently dropping down through northern lower
Michigan very early this morning...bringing one final thin line of
showers with it. Precip will exit from all terminal sites after
09Z or so. Behind the front...as thicker cloud cover thins out...
stratus and fog is becoming more widespread across eastern upper
Michigan and down into the tip of the mitt. This will be the trend
for all of northern lower Michigan through the rest of the
overnight hours as the front moves through the region...and
shallower cool air overspreads the region. Anticipate solid MVFR
and possible IFR conditions at the terminal sites over the next
several hours.

Improvement follows through the daytime hours as high pressure
and drier air gradually builds into the northern lakes region.
Morning stratus/fog will lift into a SCT-BKN CU deck by afternoon
with cigs above 3K feet.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Northerly winds develop today...turning northeasterly into Friday.
Some gustiness anticipated today and again on Friday. Winds/waves
are expected to remain below small craft criteria today. But stronger
gusts for Friday may lead to low end small craft advisory gusts/waves
for parts of Lake Huron.

Bigger impact this morning is dense fog in eastern upper
Michigan/Straits/northern Lake Huron region. Dense fog will likely
linger through early morning before substantial improvement. But
improvement will come by mid to late morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA



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