Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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182
FXUS63 KARX 041720
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1120 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE ENTERING NORTHWEST MN...AND THIS
WILL TRACK TOWARD THE U.P. BY AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FEW BANDS OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ALREADY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...BUT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO HELP SQUEEZE
OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH PER CURRENT TRENDS. COULD
BE A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. ANY
LINGERING SNOW IN WI WILL END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. LIGHT WINDS
AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AGAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHEAST IA
AND SOUTHWEST WI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVES IN ALREADY LATE IN THE DAY
FRIDAY. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING THIS IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN
WE PREVIOUSLY WERE THINKING...SO SPED UP THE ONSET ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THIS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE THURSDAY EVENT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...
BUT AMPLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN WI.
AGAIN...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY AND THEN A
LARGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY. THIS ONE IS
QUITE STRONG AND BRINGS ALONG SOME MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BUT THE
MAIN LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PASS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN AND LAKE
SUPERIOR...KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT DOES APPEAR THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GENERATE SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. THUS THERE COULD BE
A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES AS IT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW
IS A GOOD BET.

THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES AFTER THIS SUNDAY SYSTEM...WITH LARGE
AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE SUNDAY SYSTEM ASSISTS SEVERAL OTHER
SHORT WAVES IN CARVING OUT A LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE ARCTIC EXPRESS TO
ALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO POUR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BELOW ZERO LOW READINGS ARE
LOOKING LIKELY FOR WED/THU/FRI NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BAND OF -SN WAS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT MID-DAY...BUT HAS
SLOWED A BIT. NOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KRST AREAS IN THE 1930-
2230Z PERIOD AND KLSE IN THE 2130-0030Z PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS IN
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY WEAKENS
THIS SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS...BUT DID INCLUDE A 2 HR TEMPO
PERIOD OF 2SM IN -SN AT BOTH SITES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND SNOW
BAND PASS...LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT /CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL MN AT THIS TIME/ AND CARRIED ONLY SCT CLOUD DECKS MUCH OF
TONIGHT. IF SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL HAVE
WATCH FOR PATCHY BR ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS
RIGHT NOW AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ALREADY STARTS TO APPROACH
ON FRI. IMPACTS FRI MORNING WILL MAINLY BE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN CHANCES
SPREADING IN LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM....MW
AVIATION.....RRS



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