Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 240451
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Main impactful weather concerns are on rain chances this evening
into Wednesday.  Focus then turns to rain chances, with the
potential for a few thunderstorms, later this week into the
weekend.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area
as low pressure continues to impact the region. The low responsible
for this activity will slowly move south and east late tonight into
Wednesday. Surface based CAPE this afternoon has been pretty low,
generally in the 100 to 200 J/kg range south of Interstate 90. A
couple of very subtle boundaries to keep an eye on for potential
cold air funnels. Mainly one across far southwest Wisconsin and
another over central Wisconsin. Any thunderstorms that interact
with this boundary may produce a few funnel clouds. This potential
will quickly diminish by this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Shower chances linger into Wednesday then we will finally
dry out a little by Wednesday night as high pressure edges in
from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Thursday will be a dry day across the region, during the daytime
hours anyway, as the upper level ridge moves through. Plan on
pleasant weather on Thursday with highs climbing into the upper
60s to lower 70s under partly sunny skies. A couple of weak
shortwaves move through the area Thursday night into Friday. At
this time, the main timeframe for any showers and storms appears to
be Friday morning. Flow aloft then turns zonal Friday afternoon
into Friday night with a couple of weak shortwaves noted for
continued low chances for showers or perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms. Stronger forcing for precipitation arrives Saturday
into Saturday night as a trough dives into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with
this idea, so plan on periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through the Memorial Day weekend. Plan on high
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Memorial day looks to be the
coolest day with highs will mainly be in the 60s along with
continued chances for showers an maybe a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Ceilings have been very slow to come down this evening with most
locations remaining VFR. Forecast soundings from the 24.03Z RAP
still suggest that MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings should develop
overnight. Plenty of low level moisture available from all the
recent rains for at least a short period of lower ceilings. Will
not take either site below 1000 feet but down into the 1000-1500
foot range. Even less confident now about any fog forming and for
now have taken this out of the forecast. Satellite is showing some
breaks trying to form in the clouds and if one of these were to
work over either airport, fog would likely develop quickly with
the light surface winds and cooling that would occur. Still
expecting moisture trapped in the cyclonic flow to keep MVFR
ceilings in place into Wednesday afternoon before these lift to
VFR late in the day or early in the evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Mississippi
River this week. Flooding is forecast to continue on the
Trempealeau River at Dodge through Thursday. Monitor river
forecasts closely if you interests along these rivers.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp


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