Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 262036
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...IT APPEARS AS IF THERE
WILL BE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THE 26.12Z NAM IS SHOWING A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WITH SATURATION AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE STARTING
AROUND 27.09Z OR 27.10Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT TO SEE THE FOG
FORM IN THE VALLEYS WITH IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AND A
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KRST WITH A LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH HELPING TO
PRODUCE SOME FOG.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



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