Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 302027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT
19Z. ONE WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AND THE OTHER OVER THE ARROWHEAD.
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FORMED IN THE VCNTY OF THESE TROFS THANKS TO
MUCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND 35 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS HAS
HELPED THE STORMS TO MOVE AT A PRETTY GOOD PACE AND BRINGING SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN MISSED BY THE LAST TWO
SYSTEMS.

FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SENDING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO NW WI TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE BWCAW...WITH A
BREAK OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE NEXT ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BWCAW
AGAIN AND THEN AFFECT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO GRAND MARAIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

A CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE HUDSON BAY
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS KEEPING NE MN/NW WI UNDER FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARROWHEAD EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS THE STORMS BURN THROUGH ANY
LINGERING INSTABILITY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF DCVA AND MID-LEVEL CAA ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH...ONLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL TREND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY AUGUST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT HYR. INSTABILITY IS STRONGER OVER NE
MINNESOTA...SO THINK HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDER VS ORDINARY SHOWERS
AT INL AND HIB. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...SO HANDLING AS VCNTY AT ALL SITES FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PRECIP AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO MONITORING LLWS
POTENTIAL AT MN SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE KEEPS ALL TERMINALS BELOW THRESHOLD FOR
LLWS...BUT HIB/INL/BRD ALL APPROACH 30 KT VECTOR DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SFC AND 2 KFT AGL BETWEEN 31.02Z AND 31.09Z. WINDS BECOME
GUSTY AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  77  58  79 /   0   0   0   0
INL  56  74  50  78 /  10  20  10   0
BRD  59  80  55  81 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  58  78  53  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  61  78  56  79 /  10   0  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK


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