Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 190452
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN MOVES NEARBY.
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E. HAVE A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR MENTION
OF -FZRA AT DLH/HIB/INL FROM 10Z TO 13Z. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AFTER 13Z. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 00Z/20. PATCHY BR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER SUNDOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  28  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-
     037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-
     026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF






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