Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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473
FXUS63 KDLH 041325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

SOME LOW CLOUDS...AROUND 2K FEET...ARE MOVING INTO THE ARROWHEAD
AT 822 AM AND HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA. CLOUDS ARE
ALSO DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY ON THE MN/WI BORDER. HAVE ADDED CLOUD COVER IN THESE AREAS.
LOWERED DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN MN. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  74  51 /   0  20  20   0
INL  62  36  80  52 /   0  10  10   0
BRD  64  38  80  55 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  58  33  71  50 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  53  32  72  49 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI



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