Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 202346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
646 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

High pressure has yielded sunny skies across much of the
Northland this afternoon while a cold front stretched across far
northern Ontario, southern Manitoba, and southern Saskatchewan.
Skies should remain clear this evening ahead of the cold front and
temperatures will gradually cool off. The front is expected to
move into our northwest by 10 PM and cross the remainder of the
forecast area overnight. Clouds will increase along and behind the
front and a few snow showers are likely as the boundary moves
through. The best chance of precipitation is located along the
International Border as far south as the Iron Range and across
portions of the Arrowhead. Given the scattered nature of the
expected showers, kept POPs and QPF fairly low. Winds will veer
northwesterly behind the boundary with speeds and gusts expected
to increase. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
will spread southeastward across northern Minnesota, western Lake
Superior, and northwest Wisconsin by sunrise Tuesday morning. The
increasing wind speeds and resultant waves may create conditions
hazardous to smaller vessels along portions of the South Shore. We
have issued a Small Craft Advisory from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor
behind the front tonight.

Northwesterly winds will continue on Tuesday, but the wind speeds
and gusts should slowly diminish. Lake effect snow showers are
possible over portions of the Bayfield Peninsula and portions of
Iron County through the day. The upstream airmass is very dry and
confidence in more than trace accumulations of snow is rather low.

Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front. Lows tonight
will bottom out in the low single digits in northern Minnesota and
the upper teens to low 20s over central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin. Normally cold areas may see temperatures dip below zero
overnight, but the strong winds may keep the boundary layer mixed
and temperatures a bit warmer than otherwise expected. Highs on
Tuesday will reach the low 20s in northeast Minnesota to the low
30s over central Minnesota through much of northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Main concern for long term is precip event Thursday afternoon
through Friday evening.

The first part of the long term period wil be quiet as high
pressure will dominate the weather across the region. Skies will
be partly to mostly cloudy and temps will still a little below
normal. A weak shortwave out ahead of the main system will move
through the region Wednesday night brining only a chance of light
snow. Moisture is limited with this shortwave. The main storm
which is the focus for the long term will approach the region
Thursday. The first area of precipitation in the form of rain will
move into the western area by Thursday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/
Canadian are converging on the solution for the storm system. The
GFS has more widespread precip Thursday and Thursday night while
the Canadian and ECMWF keeps the bulk of the precip mainly south
of Highway 2 in NE MN.

The precip will start out as rain Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night. As colder air pushes into the region early Friday morning,
the precip will change to light snow possibly mixed sleet and
freezing rain before switching back to rain by Friday afternoon
using the top-down method. There is still question on amounts,
precip type, and duration with this storm but later runs of the
models should delineate the precip types and duration.

After the storm system pulls out late Friday, high pressure
builds into the region giving the area partly to mostly sunny
skies with highs in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with a
brief period of MVFR ceilings possible this evening, mainly at INL
and HIB but possible at all sites. Cold front approaching tonight
will lead to a period of clouds and strong winds in the wake of
the front. A light snow shower is possible at INL, but otherwise
chances for precipitation are a very low. Winds increase this
evening into tonight with gusts up to 30 knots possible at
INL/HIB/DLH...and possibly stronger gusts for a brief time at INL
when the initial front arrives. Breezy northwest winds towards
Tuesday morning, continuing through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  28  10  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL   8  24   4  35 /  40   0   0   0
BRD  20  32  12  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  20  33  10  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  21  31  12  36 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Tuesday for LSZ121-146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...JJM



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