Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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449
FXUS63 KDLH 172350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS AFTERNOON AND A WELL
DEFINED DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
THIS DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOWING THE CLOUD
COVER TO DISSIPATE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO FASTER DESTABILIZATION OF THE MIXED LAYER AND MORE FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TIGHTLY WRAPPED SFC LOW AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED UPPER LOW CONTINUE
TO SPIN OVER NERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH BANDS OF WEAK
CONVECTION SPINNING OFF TO THE NORTH AND NE THROUGH CENTRAL MN. AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
WILL INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NE INTO
WRN ONTARIO TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 ALONG AND JUST NORTH/NW OF
THE LOW TRACK WITH THE COLD/DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE W/SW
AROUND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL BE CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE
RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID-MORNING.  THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY MONDAY EVENING.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THAT TIME...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ONE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING.  IT WILL PUSH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AREAS WITH CHC POPS IN THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE MODE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN SHOWERS. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR VALUES IS
ACTUALLY KIND OF LOW...AS THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING IN PLACE. OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE A VFR/MVFR EVENING
SETTLE INTO A MAINLY MVFR NIGHT AND MVFR/VFR ON MONDAY. NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME FOG LINGER INTO THE EVENING
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  45  33  51 /  80  50  30  10
INL  40  42  30  52 / 100  80  40  10
BRD  40  43  33  54 /  70  50  10   0
HYR  44  49  33  51 /  70  30  30  10
ASX  45  50  32  49 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...DAP






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