Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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894
FXUS63 KDLH 191747 AAA
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Updated to adjust clouds coverage and increase temps a couple of
degrees. Early look at models still show a possibility of a
shower or storm this evening.  Rest of fcst unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A broad area of high pressure across the Mississippi River Valley
shifts eastward today resulting in mainly sunny skies and
southwesterly flow developing at low levels. Temperatures will be
warmer than yesterday with highs approaching 80. A cold front will
track across the Upper Midwest tonight kicking off showers and
thunderstorms across northern Minnesota, after midnight for north-
central and northeast MN. Showers and storms may dissipate towards
the daylight hours on Sunday, with another round of showers and
storms lighting up along and ahead of the front over portions of
northwest Wisconsin on Sunday. Highs again near 80. Tonight there
looks be fairly limited elevated instability, so severe storms are
not expected. However, on Sunday if storms can develop there will be
much greater instability as well as decent (~30 kts) deep-layer
shear which could sustain some strong to severe storms. However,
confidence in storms developing Sunday in northwest Wisconsin is
lower due to a strong cap that will be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The extended week ahead showcases an initial chance for additional
precipitation before turning cooler and drier for much of the work
week.

Sunday night has a continuation of precipitation chances mentioned
for the day period covered in the short term again with minimal
precipitation accumulation. Low-level atmospheric moisture profiles
continue to be somewhat dry according to latest model soundings.
Cannot rule out some storms becoming severe Sunday night as an upper
level disturbance impacts the region. A cold front associated with
the precipitation will mainly impact the southern periphery of the
forecast region with showers and thunderstorms possible. Consensus
blend models remain consistent on the frequency and intensity of
showers for this period.

Highs for much of the week will remain in the mid 70s. A slight
cool down will be in store for Wednesday as a region of high
pressure continues to build over the Northland. Sky cover will
generally be clear to mostly sunny. Overnight lows for this period
will remain in the normal range for this time of year. Could
though see some lower overnight temps in the lower valley areas
where colder temps are usually expected.

Recent consensus model runs have at the tail end of this forecast
period have some initial precipitations for the Saturday period on
the 26th though changes will continue to be made as the period moves
closer to present.

In terms of the eclipse...sky cover will be the thickest over the
southern areas due to this system, but other portions of the
Northland may potentially have an opportunity to view some of the
eclipse during the early afternoon, if some brief clearing
develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Expect VFR conditions for most of the period over the forecast
area. The exception is when a cold front passes through the region
very late tonight and Sunday morning when a ceiling of
stratocumulus at or below 3k feet may develop, especially at KHIB
and KDLH. Winds will be light this afternoon and tonight. On
Sunday a strong inversion will keep stronger winds aloft from
mixing down to the surface.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  58  78  57 /   0  20  20  10
INL  82  60  76  50 /   0  40  10   0
BRD  80  61  77  56 /   0  20  10  20
HYR  80  57  80  58 /  10  10  30  20
ASX  83  59  84  58 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Stewart
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CLC



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