Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170925
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
325 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

A warm-up today into tomorrow with a chance for light snow across
parts of northern Minnesota on Monday.

On the synoptic scale the northwest flow pattern of recent weeks has
transitioned to a temporarily more zonal-like flow over the Upper
Midwest. A low level ridge/warm front will track east across the
region Sunday night with southwest flow at low levels overnight
leading to weak warm advection. A cold front then moves in from the
northwest bringing with it sufficient low/mid level moisture and
broad-scale lift from a stacked low over southern Canada to produce
light snow with perhaps rain mixing with snow at times due to
temperatures near or above the freezing mark Monday afternoon.
Snowfall accumulation of up to an inch is possible north of the Iron
Range. Monday may also be breezy with gusts to around 30 knots
possible due in part to the deep low tracking east across northern
Manitoba.

Highs in the mid 20s to near 30 today. Overnight lows in the mid
teens to near 20. Then warmer Monday with highs in the low to mid
30s with much of the Northland outside the interior MN Arrowhead
region expected to warm up above freezing. These highs are above our
normal highs in the low 20s, but well below record values - the
record highs for Monday are 44 (Duluth) and 40 (International
Falls). (Per Duluth climo record, a high temperature above freezing
has occured 18% of the time on Dec 18.)

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

The focus in the extended period will be on a storm system that is
expected to start to affect the Northland Wednesday and possibly
continuing into late week, depending on the model, and on very cold
air that will move in next weekend and continue into next week.

Light snow with a possible light mix will end over northern
Minnesota Monday evening with little additional accumulation. Colder
air will move over the area Monday night knocking highs down into
the lower twenties to around thirty for Tuesday. Gusty west to
northwest winds are expected Tuesday, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph
possible. The upper flow will be quasi-zonal with a couple
shortwaves embedded in the fast flow aloft but little significant
precipitation is expected through Tuesday night.

An upper trough will be coming onto the Pacific Northwest coast late
Tuesday continuing into the Northern Rockies/Great Basin on
Wednesday. Low pressure will form downstream with a broad low
centered over the Nebraska/Wyoming/South Dakota vicinity. Increasing
warm air advection will lead to a chance for snow Wednesday. As the
low and upper trough move further east Wednesday night, snow will
continue and is expected to be widespread. The models are in very
good agreement through Wednesday night. The GFS and ECMWF start to
diverge some Thursday and that continues into Friday. The ECMWF is
slower and deeper with the surface low and lifts the surface low
into southern Wisconsin by 12Z Friday. The ECMWF solution would keep
snow going into Friday with the GFS dry or only having light
snowfall. In addition to snow from the low, the low level winds will
have an easterly component starting late Wednesday. This will lead
to lake enhanced snowfall along the North Shore, Twin Ports area,
and South Shore late Wednesday and possibly into Friday(if the ECMWF
is correct). It still appears a fairly widespread 2 to 4 inches of
snow will occur Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for some
areas of the Northland to receive heavy snowfall, especially if the
ECMWF solution ends up being correct with areas around Lake Superior
and northwest Wisconsin most likely to receive the higher amounts.

After the storm system passes late in the week, colder air will
start to move into the area with much colder air arriving Friday
night into Saturday night. Both the ECMWF and GFS show 850MB
temperatures dropping to near -30C at KINL by 12Z Sunday with 850MB
temperatures from -25C to -30C for all of the Northland by 00Z
Monday. Highs Saturday will only be in the single digits above zero
to lower teens, then struggle to climb above zero along the
International Border Sunday with single digits to around 10
elsewhere. There will also be northwest Winds Saturday through
Christmas Day creating even lower wind chill values. The cold looks
to stick around well into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

An area of mainly MVFR stratus was draped across the area as of
issuance time, with a few locations having deteriorated to IFR.
Expect this trend to continue, with all sites IFR by 09z. MVFR/IFR
fog is also expected to develop, as low level moisture is very
high and falling temperatures should produce fog. Improving
conditions are expected to begin in the 15z-18z time range, with
most site returning to VFR in the 21z-00z time range. There may be
deteriorating conditions again after 02z, but timing and location
are uncertain and have left out for now.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  17  33  23 /  10   0  30  10
INL  28  18  32  20 /  10  20  60  20
BRD  31  19  35  23 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  28  18  35  24 /  10   0  10  10
ASX  30  20  36  26 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Melde
AVIATION...LE



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