Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 102354
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
554 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 554 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The snow continues to end from west to east with some patchy
blowing snow. Have dropped the remaining headlines. Made some
minor adjustments to other grids, especially slowing the onset of
the next batch of snow for late tonight by an hour or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Snow ends quickly this afternoon from west to east as a deepening
low wraps up to the east. Cold air rushes in behind the low causing
temperatures to tumble through the night. Colder Wednesday with
another chance for snow in the morning.

Late this afternoon into the early evening...snow quickly ends from
west to east as a low pressure centered across southern Wisconsin
lifts northeast towards the U.P. and eventually to near Hudson Bay
by Wednesday morning. As this low exits, high pressure builds in
across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A brief period of
clearing is expected early in the evening, currently evident on
visible satellite across western Minnesota, with temperatures
falling and gusty west-northwest winds. These winds may result in
some blowing snow as winds gust to near 30 mph. Snowfall has been
slightly higher than originally anticipated, with final totals
expected to range from 3 to 6 inches across much of the Northland.
Temperatures have already fallen to the single digits in north-
central Minnesota and will continue to fall through the rest of the
afternoon.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning...While high pressure is
building in, a weak mid-level vort max will move across the Dakotas
causing snow to develop along the arctic frontal boundary that will
be pushing south across the upper Midwest. This large-scale forcing
will result in a broad area of light snow early Wednesday morning
into the early afternoon, impacting areas generally along and south
of Highway 2 in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. With
such a weak disturbance there is some inherent uncertainty with
regards to exactly where precipitation will develop and be most
intense, but at this point it looks like areas Saint Croix river
valley east across much of northwest Wisconsin will see the most
snowfall at around 1 to 3 inches. Elsewhere in east central
Minnesota 1-2", with less than an inch in northeast Minnesota. This
could change, but guidance seems to be trending farther south with
the placement of precipitation.

Wednesday afternoon...following a round of morning snow, skies will
clear from north to south under the influence of an arctic high
building in to the west. Highs ranging from near zero in north-
central Minnesota to the single digits above zero in northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Winds much weaker through the day
Wednesday at 5-10 mph out of the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Summary: Reinforcing Arctic air will give the Northland one last
surge of bitterly cold air for the latter half of the week.
Temperatures are expected to recover over the weekend and into next
week, with the Northland entering a prolonged period of warmer than
normal weather next week (in contrast to the long period of colder
than normal weather for much of December through the first half of
January. There is a low chance the Northland could be affected by a
system late this weekend and early next week, but the trend appears
to have this system avoid the Northland.

A ridge of high pressure will move through the Northland Wednesday
night, providing a period of mostly clear skies. Temperatures and
wind chills will plummet to well below zero. There should be enough
wind early Thursday to result in wind chills of 20 to 30 below for
much of northeast Minnesota, so a wind chill advisory may be needed.

A Canadian Clipper will move across south-central Canada Wednesday
night and Thursday, and its cold front will bring a surge of
reinforcing Arctic air. Strong pressure increases in 25 to 35 knots
within the soundings` mixing layers (per the GFS and NAM) will
likely result in very gusty winds in the wake of the front Thursday
afternoon and early evening. Increased the wind forecast, and we may
need to do so even more with subsequent forecasts. This front will
be relatively dry, so mostly sunny skies are likely with any light
snow remaining north in Canada.

A large area of surface high pressure will settle into the Northland
Thursday night and Friday morning. The center of the high will
likely be over Minnesota by dawn Friday, setting the stage for
strong radiational cooling due to negligible winds, clear skies, and
the fresh snow pack. Lowered the Thursday night low temperature
forecast to -20 to -30 degrees across much of the Northland, and we
may need to lower even more. This will be rock bottom for the
Northland for the foreseeable future. Would not be surprised if our
typical cold spots, like Embarrass and Brimson, drop into the -30 to
-40 range.

The Northland can expect temperature recovery over the weekend into
at least early next week when much more mild air, originating from
the Pacific Ocean and modified by the Mountains, will move into the
region. Temperatures will likely warm to above normal by early next
week, and we could see temperatures nose above the freezing mark on
Tuesday.

There is a low chance the Northland could be affected by a low
lifting across the central US late this weekend and Monday. This is
mainly due the Canadian lifting pcpn into the southern forecast
area, at the end of the model`s run, Sunday night. The GFS takes the
low on a track far enough south to barely brush a dusting of snow to
northwest Wisconsin. The ECMWF does not have the storm anywhere in
the region.

Otherwise, no significant weather is forecast through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 554 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

MVFR ceilings with the departing light snow and blowing snow. The
wind will diminish through 03Z along with VFR. Delayed the arrival
of the light snow by an hour at the terminals, but generally after
10Z. MVFR with this next round of light snow. Should see some
improvement to VFR as the snow quickly ends from 13Z to 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -4   5 -12   6 /  60  70  10  10
INL -11  -2 -17   0 /  10  30   0  10
BRD  -4   3 -13   6 /  70  70  10  10
HYR  -1   8 -11  10 /  60  70  10  10
ASX   4  10  -6  10 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF



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