Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 112047
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE LOW 3OS AND UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE PCPN WILL LIKELY BE RAIN FOR NW WISCONSIN AND AREAS OF
NE MINNESOTA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AREAS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 ARE MORE IN QUESTION...AND COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW. AREAS OF FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE ARROWHEAD ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE COLD RAIN IS
MIXED IN. THERE EVEN COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO I LEFT THIS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. I LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN TYPE...BUT I DID NOT
BELIEVE ITS HIGH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL NEAR THE TWIN PORTS FOR
LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. I THINK THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE SOUNDINGS. THIS COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT RAIN. THEREFORE...WE MIGHT NEED TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...I INCREASED THE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND HAD ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ABOUT 2
TO 5 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HOW COLD THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GET TONIGHT. IF IT DOES NOT GET COLD ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE SOME MELTING THAT CUTS DOWN IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

GUSTY EAST TO NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SNOW AND WINDS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE WILL CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY...AND MAYBE SOME DRIFTING
SNOW UNLESS THE SNOW IS WET ENOUGH.

SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN TODAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S BECAUSE OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOVING INTO
THOSE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NNW WINDS BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION. THERE COULD BE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

A COOLING TREND FOR THE TIME THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A LOT OF
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FROM CHI TO NEAR KC BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY THE
SOUTHERN AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WI (PRICE COUNTY, SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY) WILL ONLY SEE A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH DURING THE WEAK KEEPING A COLD N-NW FLOW
OVER THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THESE
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIVERS TO SLOW DOWN THEIR RISES BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES PUSH IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT HIB AND INL. CIGS WILL
DROP TO IFR IN RAIN SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  29  38 /  80  80  20  20
INL  29  41  25  37 /  30  80  40  20
BRD  40  56  31  42 /  80  60  10  20
HYR  35  51  31  42 /  70  80  10  30
ASX  32  43  31  39 /  60  80  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF






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