Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 010923
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
423 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The cut off upper low over the Lower Ohio river valley early this
morning, along with a weak ridge axis extending over northern
Minnesota will remain in control of  weather for the Northland
through the weekend.  The upper low will gradually move north across
Indiana today, then slowly ease northeast into far southeast Ontario
by Sunday afternoon. This low is going to do little more than
bring some mid and high clouds to the eastern sections of the
forecast area through Sunday, with some small rain chances for
Price county. Stratus that has developed over the area downstream
of Lake Superior the last few mornings is here once again, with
the relatively warmer -mid 50s- lake modifying the airmass that is
in the mid 40s where the clouds are clear. Expect this behavior
once again tonight, with stratus developing over the head of the
lake and over the Bayfield Peninsula in the lee of the light east
to northeast flow over the lake. The signal is not as strong as it
was the last two nights, but the pattern is about the same, and
there really hasn`t been significant change in the airmass, so it
seems best to assume the stratus will form again. The similar
airmass and only small changes in cloud cover should favor a
persistence forecast in temperatures, with highs both days getting
into the middle and upper 60s and upper 50s/low 60s near the lake.
Onshore flow is weaker on Sunday so it should be a little warmer
near the lake then. Lows to be very similar as well, dipping into
the low 40s where it clears out, with mid and upper 40s under the
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Sunday evening continues the long-awaited departure of the stagnant
cut-off low. By 03.00Z, that feature is forecast to be over the
eastern Great Lakes and progressing farther east with time. Farther
to the west a high pressure ridge will positioned over the Plains
and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces overnight and early
Monday. Surface high pressure over the western Great Lakes, with the
transient low to the north, will continue the development of a
southerly return flow across the region Sunday night into Monday.

The upper-level ridge will advance eastward ahead of a deepening
longwave trough digging across the western United States by Monday
night. A cold front will push across the Dakotas and into western
Minnesota overnight with increasing cloud cover and rain showers
spreading east toward the Northland. Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday evening appear quite soggy with and area of rain and a few
embedded thunderstorms slowly moving eastward ahead of the
decelerating cool front. Twenty-four hour rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
seems likely for the eastern two-thirds of my CWA.

Differences in the deterministic and ensemble guidance increase
after Wednesday. The variety of solutions for the track and
intensity of Hurricane Matthew and the resultant quasi-Rex Block
produce a wide spread of sensible weather for the area. The
deterministic GFS brings the closed upper low slowly northeastward
into southern Manitoba by Thursday morning with most of the GEFS
members farther west. The ECMWF and GEM both feature a more
progressive solution with the ECMWF opening the low back into a
trough. Prefer the slower GFS solution and nudged the consensus in
that direction.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Northland through
the period. IFR/LIFR conditions were expanding over northeast
Minnesota and were diminishing in spots over northwest Wisconsin.
The RAP and HRRR forecast the stratus to continue to expand across
much of northern Minnesota overnight in the easterly low level
flow. They also show a lower chance of those ceilings over
portions of northwest Wisconsin including KHYR. We do expect some
fog will be possible at KHYR and perhaps some IFR ceilings and we
included a mention from 09-12Z.

The stratus is expected to gradually lift and dissipate through
late Saturday morning or early afternoon. An upper level low
pressure the Ohio Valley will lift north and cause VFR ceilings to
increase over portions of the Northland later tonight into
Saturday and they will be most likely at KHYR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  45  65  46 /  10   0   0   0
INL  66  49  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  68  46  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  69  44  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  62  47  64  44 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde


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