Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 041800 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE FORECAST AREA AT 07Z. A FEW
CLOUDS WERE DRIFTING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM NW TO SE DUE TO THE
NW FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF FOG OR SMOKE WERE REDUCING VSBYS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE LIGHT WIND. EXPECT THE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
OR SMOKE TO PERSIST UNTIL 12Z WHEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS
MIXING ERODES THE FOG. LEFT THE MENTION OF PATCHY SMOKE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA UNTIL 18Z. AFTER 18Z...ANTICIPATING A BIT
MORE MIXING TO OCCUR AND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHING TO THE
SSW...THE SMOKE SHOULD BEGIN TO DISPERSE. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE NO PCPN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE REMOVED THE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA.

A SHORT WAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MN THIS EVENING. FORCING
IS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN MN AND WITH A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...NOT
EXPECTING ANY RAIN PRIOR TO 06Z. KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE THROUGH
09Z SUNDAY WITH GOOD SHOT OF WAA UNDERWAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. AFTER 09Z...HAVE SOME POPS OVER
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES. A BIT MORE UVM AVAILABLE...A DIVERGENCE MAXIMA ALSO ARRIVES
AT THIS TIME AND MOISTURE IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA WARRANTING THE
POPS.

ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND SOME OF THE
MOISTURE DRIES UP. HOWEVER...THE BEST REMAINING MOISTURE IS FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG WITH A BIT OF UVM FOR
SOME POPS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION WHILE A SFC TROF BISECTS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BASICALLY NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN. AN H85 LLJ
INTERSECTS THE TROF AS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES WITH AN H25 JET
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAREST
THIS JUNCTION IN THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
DOWNWARD THE FURTHER AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO. THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL BE RAIN FREE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A PASSING STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HEAVY RAIN. A LARGE
SUPPLY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED NWD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BE
DEPOSITED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS GREATER THAN 2 STD
DEV ABV NORMAL. WIDESPREAD 1-1.5 INCH RAINFALL AMTS ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE RAIN
WILL FALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...SO LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD BE OF CONCERN. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE WED/THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TO LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.
COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE SUNNY SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE HAZY SKIES BECAUSE OF SMOKE
FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KDLH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT...WITH A 35 TO 45 KNOT JET
AROUND 1500 FT DEVELOPING BY THE WEE HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL THE
LLJ WEAKENS IN THE HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW YET TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  59  81  62 /   0   0  10  90
INL  83  65  79  58 /  10  30  80  50
BRD  84  65  83  61 /  10  10  20  90
HYR  82  63  82  66 /  10  10  10  80
ASX  74  59  82  64 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...TENTINGER
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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