Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 252130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW CAUSING A QUICK LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
OUT OF THE WEST. TOMORROW THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL END...BUT
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL END LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT SUN WAS
ABLE TO BREAK OUT IN A FEW SPOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARMED
UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...CLIPPER WILL BRING A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY EAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS ONE INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES
WITH GREAT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 20S BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY...THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL END MONDAY MORNING IN
MINNESOTA...AND WILL BE PEAKING IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THE TIMING OF THE THIS STORM COULD
CHANGE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
LIGHT BY THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME IN THE TWIN PORTS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A NOSE OF WARM AIR ALOFT MAY REACH PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA UP TO
HIBBING...AND AS MID-LEVEL DRY OUT PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE FROM
SNOW TO DRIZZLE AT TIMES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...EXCEPT FOR IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN EAST OF HIGHWAY
63 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPS ONLY WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING.

DID CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ARROWHEAD REGION THIS
EVENING BUT SINCE IT IS JUST ON THE EDGE OF CRITERIA DECIDED NOT TO
ISSUE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. WHILE PARTS OF THE REGION COULD SEE
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF FOUR TO FIVE INCHES BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE
SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT IN A 12-HOUR PERIOD WILL JUST BARELY MEET THE
THREE-INCH CRITERIA.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE LIGHT SNOW FORM THE CLIPPER WILL END BY 06Z TUESDAY ACROSS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN IRON WHERE IT WILL END BY 12Z TUESDAY.  AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.   THE NEXT SHOT OF
SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM.  ATTM...THE CLIPPER WILL BE SOUTHERN IOWA BY
00Z THURSDAY AND SOUTH OF CHICAGO BY 12Z THURSDAY.  THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ARROWHEAD
WILL GET THE MOST SNOW AT 2-3 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND AREA WILL PROBABLY CHANGE
LEADING UP TO MID-WEEK.

AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSES...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRD/HIB/HYR TAF
SITES WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS THE DLH AND INL TAF SITES.  THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARL EVENING WHEN CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.  THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE TAF SITES CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS AT TAF
SITES.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY END
OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  35  21  32 /  90  50  20   0
INL  14  35  18  31 /  80  30  20  10
BRD  21  38  25  35 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  14  33  21  32 /  80  80  20  10
ASX  11  31  23  32 /  80  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART






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