397
FXUS63 KDLH 010941
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
441 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms over the area early this morning
  to gradually lift northeast out of the area by mid day.

- Another series of rainy systems are expected Thursday into
  Friday and again Friday night into Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually warm up through this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are moving across the
area this morning, driven by a potent shortwave that is sliding
northeast across the area this morning. This wave has brought a
broad area of much needed rainfall, with most locations so far
reporting between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall, though
there are a few higher reports where we had some thunder which
produced locally heavier rainfall amounts with values
approaching three quarters of an inch. This system to continue
pushing northeast today, with the southwestern edge of the
precipitation currently approximately along Hwy 2, which should
push across the US/Canada border about mid-late morning. There
has been a lot of stratus on the southwest flank of this system,
so while the rainfall will end, many areas may not get any
sunshine until late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
warmest for areas that get sunshine the longest, with low 60s
across our south, but only around 50 for the tip of the
Arrowhead.

We have a brief break in precipitation this afternoon and
evening, only for another wave of precipitation to move across
the area late tonight and Thursday, this time driven by an
inverted surface trough and another strong shortwave. This
should bring us another quarter to three quarters of an inch of
rainfall, with the greatest amounts over northwest Wisconsin,
where we get enough instability for some convective elements and
rumbles of thunder. Thursday to be another chilly blustery day
with highs down in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We will have wrap-
around shower activity on Friday, but this will be in the cold
air advection, steep low level lapse rates section of this
particular system, and do not expect anything very robust out of
it. In fact, there should be enough sunshine for highs to rise
into the upper 50s and 60s. Saturday will be similar, with
enough cold air aloft to perhaps get some more vigorous
convection going. It will definetely be cooler Saturday than
Friday, only to warm up again on Sunday. For now, it appears it
should be dry on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 60s
for much of the area.

Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent
spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for the
first half of the work week. The operational models are keeping
Monday mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some faster
members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we have some
low confidence pops in for Monday. I would not be surprised to
see these disappear here in the next few days. Beyond this, it
is hard to make any additional changes with confidence, as the
operational models are showing an increasing spread in the
timing and strength of ths system, and ensembles backing that
up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A low pressure system sliding northeast across the area this
morning has brought an area of predominantly MVFR ceilings with
a smaller area of IFR ceilings in rain, reducing visibilities to
MVFR at times. The lowest conditions are expected between 09z
and 18z, followed by a gradual improvement. Visibilities will
improve first, with these returning to VFR by 16z. The ceilings
will take longer, but also returning VFR by 23z. Winds early
this morning are varied with the low is overhead, but as it
moves off to the northeast today, winds will become westerly and
then increase for a few hours this afternoon, then decrease
again after 00z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Strong gusty northeast winds this morning are expected to
gradually diminish through the day today as they back to the
northwest by afternoon. Waves have been modeled at over 4 feet
for most of the nearshore waters through at least mid morning,
but should also be on a decreasing trend. These west to
northwest winds to diminish this evening to less than 15 knots
over the lake. We will get another round of strong and gusty
northeast winds that begin on Thursday, with the strongest winds
Thursday evening then diminishing and then this time veering
into the southwest by Friday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     LSZ140>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE