388
FXUS63 KDLH 262343
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
643 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainy weekend begins through the day today. Recent trend shows
  the potential for a better break Saturday afternoon/evening
  before rain begins again through Sunday morning. 1 to 2 inches
  rainfall expected with locally higher amounts 2"+ possible
  especially along the North Shore

- Windy Sunday into Monday out of the east-northeast. Strongest winds
  in the Twin Ports, North Shore, and the MN Arrowhead. Wind
  Advisories may be needed.

- Warmer temperatures into next week with additional chances for
  precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rain has begun to move into the Northland this afternoon, with
the initial bands stretching up along the I-35 corridor and
towards the International Border. Rain has been fairly light so
far, and initial low level dry air has lead to some of these
first bands spending much of their energy on just moistening the
column, instead of actually bringing very much rain to the
surface. So far we`ve only seen a couple hundredths of an inch
fall where rain has managed to make it down. Through this
evening, we`re expecting to see further rain shower development
between the bands currently in the Northland and the
thunderstorms in southern Minnesota. CAMs suggest this will be a
mix of stratiform and showery activity, and an injection of
just a little CAPE advecting northward into the evening hours
should mean that some embedded thunderstorms will be possible
amongst all of this as well. Rainfall will be on and off, with
periods of heavier rates mixed with times of light rain to
drizzle, through tomorrow morning.

Through the day tomorrow, the low pressure system lifts
north, pulling precipitation with it. We have pulled chances of rain
out slightly faster with this forecast update, which will make for a
slightly longer break between periods of widespread rain. Tomorrow
afternoon, areas south of Highway 2 may be nearly clear of all rain,
while the chance for a shower or two lingers in the north, which
should clear as well Saturday evening. This first round should bring
0.25 - 1.25 inches of rain to the area, highest over the BLA to Iron
Range and along the North Shore.

Then our second wave of rain arrives through Sunday morning, which
should have a much easier time of actually reaching the ground, with
rain starting right away. This system, just a tad further southeast
than the first, will bring another 0.5 -1.5 inches of rain (highest
amounts over NW WI and the North Shore) and strong east to
northeasterly winds to the region. These winds, strongest closer to
Lake Superior could see gusts of 30 to 45 mph, and it is still
possible a Wind Advisory may be needed for the Twin Ports and North
Shore Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. However, recent
trends have been bringing winds down slightly, so will hold off on
any headline decisions for now. Rain should wind down through the
day Monday.

Into next week, some warmer temperatures return with highs in the
50s and 60s (possibly some areas seeing 70). Our pattern remains
active however, with multiple additional chances for rain through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions at INL/DLH/HYR and MVFR conditions at BRD/HIB
will be worsening to MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities as
the evening progresses due to rain expanding across the region.
Some LIFR ceilings are also possible tonight into mid-Sunday
morning as chances have increased (20-40% chance of occurring
at the terminals, highest at DLH. Some embedded thunderstorms
are also possible at times later this evening and tonight at
BRD/HIB/DLH/HYR, lingering longest at HYR. Expect improving
visibilities mid to late Saturday afternoon as light rain moves
northeast of the area, with most terminals seeing brief
improvement in ceilings to MVFR aside from HIB/DLH before
falling back down to IFR ceilings late Saturday evening and
night.

Southeast winds remain strong, with gusts to 20 to 25 knots
through much of this evening, gradually weakening tonight into
Saturday morning as winds turn northeasterly to northerly in NE
MN and more southerly in WI with the incoming low pressure
center, and then picking up again out of the north to northwest
Saturday afternoon with gusts to 15 to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An active period is expected through the weekend across western Lake
Superior. Southeast to northeasterly winds today remain strong into
Saturday with some gusts of 25 knots overnight, and waves up to 6
feet, especially near the head of the lake. Expect rain and some
possible embedded thunderstorms along with these winds. There will
be a slight lull late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours, as
winds become light out of the north. At this point, waves will stop
growing, but our current forecast of wave heights dropping to 2-3
feet may be slightly underdone, as larger swell may linger.
Northeasterly winds pick up again Sunday, this time stronger. Gusts
of 35 to 45 knots are expected, especially along teh North Shore,
across the Outer Apostle Islands, and into the Twin Ports. These
high-end gales continues into Monday morning, slowly decreasing
through the day Monday. Sunday night, when winds are strongest,
waves of 10 to 15 feet are possible. A Gale Watch remains in effect.
With these strongest winds, expect rain and some possible embedded
thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     LSZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens