- Warnings
- Observations
- Forecasts
- Text Messages
- Forecast Models
- Climate
- Weather Safety
- Education/Outreach
- Information Center
- Contact Us
RSS Feeds
Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
000
FGUS73 KDLH 291912
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-
051-099-113-129-302300-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
...THIRD SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE DULUTH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH
INCLUDES NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
AREA ENCOMPASSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HEADWATERS TO FT. RIPLEY
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE CROW WING RIVER.
ADDITIONAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
THE ST. LOUIS RIVER WITHIN THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DRAINAGE.
THE SNAKE RIVER WHICH FLOWS INTO THE ST. CROIX RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF
PINE CITY. THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD APRIL 1, 2013
THROUGH JUNE 30, 2013.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN 12.0 15.0 18.0 : 82 52 31 24 11 <5
FORT RIPLEY 10.0 12.5 26.0 : 93 41 42 11 <5 <5
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON 10.5 11.0 13.0 : 8 11 6 9 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.6 8.3 8.9 9.0
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.0 7.8 8.5 9.0
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.8 16.7 18.9 19.5
FORT RIPLEY 9.9 10.2 11.1 11.9 13.6 15.2 15.7
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON 5.6 5.8 6.7 7.4 8.7 10.3 11.2
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:PRAIRIE RIVER
TACONITE 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
:SNAKE RIVER
PINE CITY 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AITKIN 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
FORT RIPLEY 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5
:ST. LOUIS RIVER
SCANLON 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
...SNOW COVER.....
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW ARE CRITICAL COMPONENTS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOW MELT FLOODING. SINCE THE END OF
FEBRUARY...THE AREA THAT HAS SEEN THE GREATEST INCREASE IN SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER CONTENT ARE THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THE CROW
WING RIVER BASINS. AT THIS TIME...SNOW DEPTH OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INCLUDE:
24 INCHES ALONG THE RAINY RIVER
24 INCHES IN MOST OF THE UPPER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND CROW WING
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE HEADWATERS AROUND LEECH LAKE AND
LAKE WINNIBIGOSHISH
8 TO 18 INCHES WITHIN THE ST. LOUIS RIVER BASIN
8 TO 14 INCHES WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER BASIN
8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE UPPER ST. CROIX AND CHIPPEWA RIVER BASINS
CURRENT WATER CONTENT EXISTING WITHIN THE SNOW PACK RANGE FROM:
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CHIPPEWA BASIN
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN
3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE ST. LOUIS RIVER BASIN
4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE RAINY RIVER BASIN
THESE VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF
THE RAINY RIVER BASIN...AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND CROW WING RIVER
BASINS WHERE SNOW WATER CONTENT WAS ABOVE NORMAL.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTHS...
CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE DRY WITH A DEEPER THAN NORMAL FROST
DEPTH. PRECIPITATION WAS 6 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN JULY
AND THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION PERIOD STARTING IN MID
NOVEMBER. A DEEP FROST OF 2 TO 3 FEET MAY RESULT IN SPRING SNOWMELT
RUNNING OFF AND NOT INFILTRATING INTO THE DEEPER LAYERS OF THE SOIL
COLUMN.
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS STARTING
IN AUTUMN 2011. A VERY WARM MARCH 2012 DEPLETED OUR SNOW AND BEGAN
DRYING SOILS THEN PRECIPITATION DEFICITS DEVELOPED AGAIN STARTING
JULY 2012 AFTER A VERY WET PERIOD IN MAY AND JUNE 2012. TEMPERATURES
WERE ABOVE NORMAL DURING SPRING AND SUMMER OF 2012. WHILE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF THE SPEED
OF THE SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 WEEKS...A SLOWER MELT THIS
SPRING COULD ALLOW GREATER AMOUNTS OF WATER TO PERCOLATE
INTO THE SOILS AND HENCE GO FARTHER TOWARD ALLEVIATING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
ALL RIVERS IN THE DULUTH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA REMAIN ICE
COVERED AS OF MARCH 29. ACCORDING TO THE USGS AND MINNESOTA DNR...
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIVER FLOW NEAR NORMAL WHILE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BASIN RIVER FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY...RAINY RIVER BASIN
FLOWS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL. IN WISCONSIN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER
BASIN FLOWS ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL.
...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...
SHORT RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS SHOW A COLD RAIN EVENT THE WEEKEND OF
MARCH 30-31 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WILL BRING ANYWHERE FROM
A QUARTER TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDES LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS AND IS
INDICATING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTH OF APRIL.
...FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
THIS OUTLOOK SHOWS A 82 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE
ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN AND A 93 PERCENT CHANCE OF
REACHING MINOR FLOOD AT FT. RIPLEY. ELSEWHERE...ON THE PRAIRIE
RIVER...ST. LOUIS RIVER AND SNAKE RIVER THE PROBABILITY OF THOSE
RIVERS RISING TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DLH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR USGS
LOCATIONS PLEASE REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT
MN DNR LOCATIONS...REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$
SG
- National Weather Service
- Marquette, MI Weather Forecast Office
- 112 Airpark Drive South
- Negaunee, MI 49866
- 906-475-5212
- Page Author: MQT Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-mqt.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:32 UTC