Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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000
FXUS63 KDTX 010143
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
943 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS NORTHEAST GALES
DIMINISHED ON SAGINAW BAY WHICH ALLOWED WATER LEVELS TO DROP
QUICKLY ALONG THE SHORELINE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS PROGRESSING ON TRACK AS
LATEST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT HOLDING OFF ON FROST MENTION IN THE
TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. NORTHERN MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO DIMINISHING WIND BUT EXPECT SPEED
WILL HOLD ABOVE 5 MPH THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY. EVENING SATELLITE
TRENDS ALSO INDICATE THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM WISCONSIN. EXPECT SOME DECREASING COVERAGE
WHILE MOVING EASTWARD BUT THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
MODELED TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH INTEGRITY TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SUPPORT
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST
CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN ARE LIMITED TO THE TIMING ON
THE NORTH TO SOUTH PROGRESS OF THE LOW CLOUD PATTERN THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT THESE WILL CLEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY MID MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 753 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING
THE EVENING. GUSTY WIND WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND THE CLEARING
TREND THAT OCCURRED AT MBS DURING LATE AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A TOUCH OF
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE EVENING FROM PTK SOUTHWARD BUT THIS WILL HAVE
NO IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FROM MVFR TO
VFR DURING THE NIGHT WHILE THE CLEARING TREND SPREADS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TOWARD DTW. THIS WILL LEAD INTO VFR THROUGH MONDAY UNDER A
MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FOR DTW... A BRIEF BOUT OF DRIZZLE WILL NOT OBSTRUCT VISIBILITY
DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR
BUT BELOW 5000 FT WHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLEARING TREND
MAY REACH DTW BEFORE SUNRISE.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FEET OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 338 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SHORT TERM... TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STEADILY DECLINING RADAR COVERAGE...WITH
MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY 00Z. FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
COMING DOWN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

WITH HIGHS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S (NORMAL LOWS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)...WE ARE SET UP FOR A COLD NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NORTH TO SOUTH CLEARING LINE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...PER 12Z NAM RH AT 850 MB. EVEN IF CLEARING
OCCURS A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WHICH SHOULD HOLD UP TEMPS ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FROST FORMATION...WITH MOST LOCATIONS CHECKING IN AROUND 40 DEGREES.
SAGINAW LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CLIMATE SITE WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO A
RECORD LOW FOR JUNE 1ST...37 DEGREES (2003)...BUT AGAIN THE
NORTHEAST WIND OFF SAGINAW BAY WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS FROM
HAPPENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL REMAIN DEFINED BY A
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...SE MICHIGAN POSITIONED SOUTH
OF ELONGATING SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING OFF FROM A 1033 MB HIGH
SLOWLY DRIFTING ACROSS QUEBEC.  SOME LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS ON MONDAY...BEFORE DRY AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH AND ENSUING DAYTIME HEATING WORKS TO MIX
OUT THIS MOISTURE.  EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MIXING MODEST...LIMITING THE OVERALL THERMAL RESPONSE.  HIGHS
PREDOMINATELY WITHIN THE 60 TO 65F RANGE...UPPER 50S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE LOCALES GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW.  DRY/STABLE
PROFILE WITH PLENTY OF SUN INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES A
GREATER CONTROL.  GENERAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THICKNESSES SLOWLY
INCREASE WILL PROVIDE A NUDGE UPWARD IN HIGHS...WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS BACK UP AROUND 70 DEGREES /AGAIN COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE/.

THINGS ARE LOOKING RATHER UNEVENTFUL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF
RELATED TO AN AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS LIFTING FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE 12Z GFS/EURO DIG AN UPPER WAVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY TO HANDLE THIS. EARLY
INDICATION FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS DRY AND SEASONABLE UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.

MARINE...

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY WILL SUSTAIN THE ONGOING GALES ACROSS SAGINAW
BAY FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS.  THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME.  WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......BT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR/DT
MARINE.......MR


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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