Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 231939
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
339 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE (1024 MB) IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT EAST TONIGHT...AND WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (DEW PTS IN 20/30S)...A CHILLY NIGHT
(SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S) APPEARS TO BE ON
TAP...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE/LOW OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RUNNING INTO THE BRICK WALL OF DRY AIR AND NORTHWEST
CONFLUENT FLOW ESTABLISHED BY THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA.
WEAKENED 6 HR HEIGHT FALLS PROGGED AS SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS (PW PLUME OF 1-1.4 INCHES)
APPROACHING MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING SUNDAY...WITH THE FLAT
TOP OF THE 850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SPLINTERING OFF EAST INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THUS BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION/TIGHT
FGEN FORCING LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. NONE-THE-LESS...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW ALMOST NORTHWEST
DURING SUNDAY (SOUTHEAST CORFIDI VECTORS)...A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS
COULD EXTEND THEIR SOUTHERN REACH TO ALONG/NORTH OF I-69
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IF ONE SIDES WITH THE 12Z EURO.

CLOUDS AND BACKED SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING 70 DEGREES...WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION KICKING TOO LATE IN THE DAY...AS NAM INDICATING 925 MB
TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM WITH
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 DEGREES ON MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...AS THE CWA RESIDES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FOR GOOD PART
OF THE DAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS ADVERTISED TO REACH
NEAR 11 C. SUBSEQUENTLY...MLCAPES LOOK TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH UP AROUND 1000 J/KG (PER NAM)...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE CELL WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
RUNNING ABOVE 30 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SLOWLY SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH 850 MB DEW PTS UP
AROUND 10 C...AND HAVE CARRIED HIGH LIKELY POPS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY AND
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT MAJOR
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY AND
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT MAJOR
SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND LAKE ERIE WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE HIGH EXITS THE REGION
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LAKES. A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY MORNING. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. IT IS LIKELY
THAT NE WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE ON LAKE HURON
MONDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD ACTUALLY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS SE MI ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN MI
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A PERIOD OF RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE FRONT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND AN INCH. SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 100 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SUSTAIN CLEAR SKIES BELOW 10K FT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE WERE A FEW CU THAT DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW
BAY THIS MORNING. THESE HAVE SINCE MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO A DROP IN NE WINDS BELOW 7 KNOTS
BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF/RK
MARINE.......SC
HYDROLOGY....SC
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).



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