Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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171
FXUS63 KDTX 261924
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
324 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast area will continue to remain in a warm and humid air mass
into the weekend. Most locations today are in the low to mid 80s
with dew points in the lower 60s.  This is producing cape values 1-
1.5k joules. Convection today so far has been suppressed by
subsidence from mid level ridging and lack of any surface
convergence.  Some showers/tstorms have developed in the Thumb
region from lake breeze convergence but these have struggled to do
much.  Weak mid level trough is currently over western lower
Michigan.  Some activity has developed in the past hour or so in
this region aided by lake breeze convergence.  The ridge currently
over head will slide east while weak trough to west moves through
this evening. This will help provide an increase in shower or
thunderstorm development this evening though expect coverage to
remain scattered as the area will also be under the negative
influence of some right exit region subsidence from jet max over
Wisconsin.  The rest of the night will remain quiet overall with
weak mid level ridging moving back in.  Will still carry a small chc
for a shower or storm as atmosphere will remain unstable and any
meso boundary or disturbance could trigger some activity.

Overall conditions will remain the same Friday through Saturday
night as area will continue to ly between ridging along the east
coast and troughing in the Midwest.  Convection will depend on any
meso boundary or disturbance in the southwesterly flow.  Best
chances for shower or storm activity will be afternoon and evening
with heating of the day.  Highs will generally be in the mid 80s and
low mid 60s with the typical cooler daytime highs near the lake
shorelines.

Rain chances will hang around into Sunday as low pressure moves
northeast over the northern Great Lakes region.  As this low pushes
northeast away from the area, ridging will begin to build in from
the west giving the area a break from precip from Memorial Day
through the middle of the week.  There still remains the slight
chance for some scattered showers on Memorial Day, however most
areas should remain dry.  Models are then advertising another low
pressure system moving east across the northern Great Lakes at the
end of the extended period as troughing looks to take hold once
again across the area.

&&

.MARINE...

Several weak surface troughs across the region will sustain a chance
of evening thunderstorms. The overall weak sfc gradient across the
region will maintain relatively light winds through Friday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase again Friday afternoon with
another influx of moisture and instability. A couple of low pressure
systems will track across the western Great Lakes and upper
Mississippi Valley this weekend. These will sustain light south
winds through the weekend while also providing a chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

AVIATION...

The development of an MVFR/low end VFR strato cu deck has resulted
from low level moisture and the onset of daytime heating. Continued
heating during the course of the afternoon will slowly lift bases.
Weak to moderate afternoon destabilization may lead to some
scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening...aided by mid
level moisture pooling with the passage of a a weak trough axis in
the 21Z to 01Z time frame. Given that the strongest ascent will be
sliding north of the area and in light of recent regional radar
trends...the chances of thunder at PTK/FNT/MBS look to be less than
30 pct.  Low level moisture will linger across the region through
the night. This may support some fog and/or low stratus development
late tonight into early Fri morning.

FOR DTW...The most recent regional radar loop is suggesting some
redevelopment on the northern edge of the convection now tracking
across Indiana. There is a chance that some of this convection will
push into metro in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. If it does not reach
the airport, there is at least a good chance that the southern
sections of the D21 airspace will be impacted.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 FT or less this afternoon and evening.

* Moderate for thunderstorms affecting DTW/D21 airspace late this
  afternoon and evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRC/SS
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....SC


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.



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