Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS63 KGRB 040752
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOLER AIR BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES COOLER TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER FOR THE MOST PART...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL VORT
MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE MID LEVEL FORCING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS AT
A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.

CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOWS COULD APPROACH FREEZING...WHICH WILL
NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS STARTED. THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD
WITH THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCE IF TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN CREEP A FEW DEGREES LOWER. FURTHER NORTH THERE
WILL BE NO HEADLINES DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HEADLINES FOR
THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE NOT STARTED.

THE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB A GOOD 10
DEGREES CELSIUS IN 36 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY TO SOAR BACK INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE...WITH A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING ON HOW AGGRESSIVE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL
BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THIS WEEKEND.  THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
DIVERGING.  WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL
BE OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE.  MODELS SPIT OUT LIGHT QPF IN THIS WARM ADVECTION
ZONE...WITH SOME FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ATTRIBUTES PRESENT.  MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOW INCREASING ABOVE 7 C/KM THURSDAY NIGHT AND THERE
IS SOME MODEST CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG.  BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK SO
DRY...AND THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EITHER.  PREFER TO KEEP A
DRY FORECAST GOING.  FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A VERY WARM DAY
AS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  925MB TEMPS CONTINUES TO
ARGUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE.  THEN A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS LOOK CAPPED TO SURFACE CONVECTION AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES...AND MID-LEVELS CONTINUE TO LOOK VERY DRY.  ANY
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING...SO
THINKING ANY SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW.  STILL THOUGH...THERE MAY BE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL OFF.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE
DEPARTING BY MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BRINGING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE
ANOTHER SCENARIO WHERE AN ARCING BAND OF PRECIP TRIES TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD INTO WISCONSIN...WHERE AMPLE DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT.  AS
A RESULT...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THREAT LOOKS BETTER FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...HOWEVER...WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SHOWERS WILL DEPART EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE SKIES CLEARED. ANTICIPATE A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WHERE SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE INCREASING NORTH WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THE
FOG BY MORNING. BLUSTERY WINDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH
EITHER A LOWER END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ030-035-036-
045.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.