Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 141750
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ADDED DOOR COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY DUE TO THE COMBO OF A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. REPORTS OF A FEW INCHES AND THE
POTENTIAL FEW MORE...BUT WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ALONG PARTS OF
DOOR COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY CREATING NEAR WHITE
OUT CONDITIONS.

SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EXPECT
THIS DECREASING TREND TO REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN IN A FEW HOURS.
DID KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING A BIT LONGER OVER DOOR COUNTY DUE TO
THE LINGERING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW QUICKLY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WITH A
SOUTHERN EDGE FEATURE TRACKING OVER THE FOX CITES. IN ADDITION
TRACK OF THE 850 LOW SUPPORTS HIGHER ACCUMULATION FROM CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WOULD HAVE NO ISSUE ISSUING A
WARNING FOR A PURE WINTER SITUATION...BUT SNOW FALLING ON A WARM
GROUND AND MIX EARLY PLAYS HAVOC WITH SNOW AMOUNT FORECASTS.

HOWEVER RAIN TO SNOW FAST ENOUGH TO EXPAND ADVISORY INTO THE FOX
CITIES. NOT CONFIDENT OF AMOUNTS BUT ANTICIPATE ROADS WILL BE
SLIPPERY FOR THE COMMUTE.

COLD AND QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER THIS MORNING WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH FROM NORTHWEST TO A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD WISCONSIN FROM THE PLAINS. NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE RAIN
AND/OR SNOW FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOOKS
LIKE THERE COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THAT MAY BRING 5 TO 8 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY FOR A WHILE. POPS CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW FINALLY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SECONDARY WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF IA...WILL MAINLY AFFECT
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES VERY
LIGHT SNOW GOING THROUGH THIS AFTN. MAIN TROF TO PASS THROUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MODEL SUGGEST MAY SOME ADDITIONAL
FLURRIES WITH FEATURE...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS MOVE INTO THE STATE.
GUSTY NW WINDS FALLING OFF FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WINDS GUSTING TO GALES ALONG DOOR COUNTY...HOISTED THE GALE
WARNING FOR TODAY. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE THE SCA AFTER THE
GALE.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPIRED THE FLOOD WATCH AND WILL HANDLE HYDRO ISSUES WITH RIVER
STATEMENTS AS NEEDED. WILL ALSO LET THE FLOOD ADVISORY GOING FOR
PARTS OF WINNEBAGO AND CALUMET COUNTIES. THE MANITOWOC RIVER WAS
RISING BUT STILL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 3 AM.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
MARINE.........TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH







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