Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 310817
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
317 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES WL PERSIST ACRS NOAM DURING THE FCST
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST BRANCH OF THE FLOW WL REMAIN ACRS CANADA. A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH ACRS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY TO THE
POINT OF BECOMING BLOCKY...WITH TROFS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NR
THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE SERN CONUS...WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN.

TEMPS WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...WARM BACK TO NR OR A
LITTLE ABV NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX ARE
EXPECTED AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COOL BUT
MODIFYING CANADIAN AIR MASS. THE CHC FOR RAIN WL RETURN LATER IN
THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. THE TREND TOWARD A
BLOCKY PATTERN ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER WE WL HEAD BACK
INTO A WET PATTERN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...OR
WHETHER THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL HOLD TO OUR WEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A QUIET SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...WITH THE ONLY REAL ITEM OF
CONCERN THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. AS
EXPECTED...THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE N WERE DROPPING TO NR OR
BLO FZG EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE HOLDING UP ACRS THE REST OF
THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE LOST THE WIND SO WL
PROBABLY HAVE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST FM C-NE WI. WL LEAVE
CURRENT HEADLINES INTACT.

ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WL BE MODERATING...A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WL RESULT IN LESS WIND TNGT. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE NEGATIVE FOR
THAT TNGT IS AREA OF HIGH/MIDDLE CLDS THAT WL BE SHIFTG THROUGH
THE RGN. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING...BUT GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHTS
IT WON/T TAKE MUCH CLOUDINESS TO PREVENT A FROST/FREEZE. WITH
CURRENT HEADLINES OUT UNTIL MID-MORNING ANYWAY...WL HOLD OFF
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR TNGT AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO CONT TO MONITOR
THE CLDS ON STLT.

OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WL BE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN
TO INTRODUCE PCPN BACK INTO THE FCST AS THE MODELS CONT TO FLIP-
FLOP ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT NEAR
NORMAL ON TUE AND SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM MID-WEEK
ONWARD.

HI PRES TO REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES NEWD INTO SE
CANADA MON NGT...PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
8H TEMPS ARE FCST TO HAVE RISEN TO AROUND +8C BY 12Z TUE...THUS
DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...MIN TEMPS WL
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NGTS. DID LWR VALUES A COUPLE OF DEGS
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST AND THIS WOULD SEND TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPR 30S NORTH...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S SOUTH. WL NEED TO ADD MORE
FROST TO THE FCST AND ITS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
ANOTHER FROST HEADLINE WL BE NEEDED NORTH.

THE SFC HI SLIPS A BIT TO THE EAST ON TUE...BUT IS STILL THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING NE WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC HI...
MODELS BRING AN UPR RDG TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE
AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATES TO ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PERSISTENT WEAK WAA RAISING 8H TEMPS INTO THE +10 TO +12C
RANGE. THIS SHOULD ADD 3 TO 5 DEGS TO THE MAX TEMPS FROM MON WITH
LWR TO MID 60S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 60S TO LWR 70S ELSEWHERE.

THE WAA PATTERN BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS WI TUE NGT AS THE SFC HI
HEADS TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE UPR RDG SLIDES TOWARD
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION BECOMES FOCUSED TOWARD THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY WHERE A SFC LOW...CDFNT
AND SHORTWAVE TROF TO BE CO-LOCATED. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS AIMED AT
THE SAME LOCATION...THUS EXPECT SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
WEST. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME HI CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THIS PCPN
AND THIS WOULD HELP TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LOOK
FOR READINGS TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 40S.

A BLOCKY PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WL LEAD TO
A SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC LOW/CDFNT HEADED INTO WED. THE
SHORTWAVE TROF APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD WI...THUS NOT
MUCH FORCING HELP FROM THIS FEATURE. PREFER TO KEEP ANY PCPN TO
OUR WEST THRU THE DAY AND RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO SOME MIXED
SUNSHINE HANGING ON LONGER. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...TO THE MID TO UPR 70S ELSEWHERE.

ALL THE LONG-TERM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EWD ADVANCE OF PCPN
TOWARD NE WI THRU THU...EVEN THE GEM WHICH 24 HOURS AGO HAD
BROUGHT MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE FCST AREA AS EARLY AS TUE NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WED
NGT OR THU AS INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES RISE NE ON THE WRN FLANK OF
THE UPR RDG SITUATED TO OUR EAST. HAVE REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR BOTH WED NGT/THU TO SLGT CHCS FOR NOW. TEMPS WL CONT TO
WARM A COUPLE OF DEGS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH MAXS ON THU
AROUND 70 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI...MID 70S TO AROUND 80S DEGS
ELSEWHERE.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ERN CONUS BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN
ENUF TO FINALLY ALLOW THE CDFNT TO PUSH INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF THU NGT INTO FRI.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH BRINGS CHC POPS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE PCPN CHCS WL LIMIT DIURNAL WARMING ON
FRI WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 70S ALONG LAKE MI...LWR TO MID 70S
NORTH AND MID TO UPR 70S SOUTH.

THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PCPN CHCS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY NEXT
SAT. EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS QUITE DIFFICULT...SO WL NOT GET
CUTE WITH THE POP WORKING JUST YET. A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE
BEHIND THE FNT FRI NGT...E-NE ON SAT WL PULL SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS ON SAT TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S
LAKESIDE...MID 70S FOR PARTS OF CNTRL WI.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TDA AND TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 800 AM
WIZ005-010>012-018-

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 800 AM
WIZ013-019-021-030-
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI


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