Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 250447 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

REMOVED PART OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WARNING
HEADLINES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EARLIER PLANS OF CANCELING PART OF THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY THIS EVENING WILL BE DELAYED...PERHAPS CAN ATTEMPT TO END
A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING BUT
UNFORTUNATELY NOT IN TIME FOR THE LOCAL NEWS. STILL GETTING
PLENTY OF 5 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN WITH LOCAL 6+ INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. APPEARS THE MAX
SNOW REGION LIES FROM AROUND STEVENS POINT TO SHAWANO TO NEAR
ANTIGO AND MAY EXTEND INTO OCONTO COUNTY. CONSIDERED DOWNPLAYING
THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT A
RECENT 4 INCH REPORT AT EACH MANITOWOC AND CHILTON AND 3 INCHES
AT SUE WITH MORE SNOW OVERNIGHT...PUTS A HALT TO THOSE PLANS. IN
ADDITION...CALLS TO LOCAL SHERIFFS INDICATE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING GOING ON IN OPEN AREAS IN THE WARNING AREA.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VSBYS SENSORS ON AREA AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING SOME TAPERING OFF OF THE BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY
THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW AND H850 LOW HAVE TRACKED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STILL HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PASSING OVER THIS EVENING TO
PROVIDE CONTINUED MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOCATIONS TOWARD LAKE
MICHIGAN AND MAINLY EAST OF THE FOX RIVER...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY TURN
OUT TO BE LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO MELTING ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...WHEREAS LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FOX RIVER
PICKED UP 4-5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AND NEARING WARNING CRITERIA.
WILL TRY TO MAKE SOME HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CENTRAL WI.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MESSY FCST TO SAY THE LEAST FOR TNGT AS A LARGE BAND OF SNOW
ROTATES THRU NE WI THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING AFTER MIDNGT. TRYING
TO DETERMINE EXACT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND AFFECT OF GUSTY
WINDS ON THE FRESH SNOW WL BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE. A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE TO BE LAKE EFFECT FOR VILAS CNTY...ALTHO THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MINOR EVENT.

COMBINATION OF NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROF ADN TRAILING CDFNT
DRAPED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WL ALLOW SNOW TO CONT ACROSS NE WI
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. MAX LIFT/FORCING STILL PROGGED TO BE OVER
E-CNTRL WI...THUS THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE.
HEAVIEST SNOW RATES TO FALL FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING/
OVRNGT HOURS. LATEST ACCUMULATION NUMBERS TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS E-CNTRL WI...TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT HEADLINES INCLUDE: UPGRADING
SRN MARINETTE CNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR FOREST AND MARINETTE COUNTIES AND EXPIRE THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CNTRL WI AT 09Z (INSTEAD OF 12Z). ANOTHER
COMPLICATION FOR TNGT WL BE THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHICH WOULD TEND TO BLOW/DRIFT THE NEW SNOW. THIS WOULD
CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. LASTLY...
WL NEED TO WATCH VILAS CNTY FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AS TRAJS ARE
FAVORABLE. ONE NEGATIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS THE
MODEST AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DELTA-T VALUES
ARE ONLY ABLE TO REACH THE MID-TEENS...THUS KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS
IN CHECK. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY IN PLACE...BUT
AMOUNTS WL BE TEPID COMPARED TO EARLIER EVENTS THIS MONTH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NC WI WED NGT INTO THU...AND THE
EFFECTS OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR NE WI...AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NC WI...WILL END EARLY IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS NOW SEEMS POISED TO MOVE SW OF THE FCST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER TROF AND CYCLONIC NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE NNW
TRAJECTORIES...LAKE-H8 DELTA-T`S APPROACHING 20 C AND SOME
SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE UPPER TROF. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY...AND PLAN TO MENTION ACCUMS OF 2-4
INCHES IN THE HWO FOR STARTERS. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A BRIEF TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
WITH A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE MIXED PCPN OVER
NORTHERN WI AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH COLD
NW FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NC WI SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 453 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LINGER
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS TO BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID EVENING THEN OVER EASTERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ020-031-037-
048.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ022-038>040-
049-050-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ010-011-
013-019-021.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........TDH
SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH






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