Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 120844
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
344 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE STATE THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE WAA RETURN FLOW ON A 50 KNOT LLJ. RADAR SHOWS
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE H850 WARM FRONT
LIFTING SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN EASTWARD INTO THE REST
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. TSTMS NOTED ALONG A SECOND CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FROM EASTERN SD TO CENTRAL IOWA...WHICH IS NEAR THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOCATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE. ANTICIPATE
PCPN WILL BE MORE BANDED AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE DRY
AIRMASS AT THE ONSET. PWATS CLIMB FROM 0.40 EARLY THIS MORNING TO
0.60 ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND AN INCH OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON SO RAIN RATES WILL INCREASE.
MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30...WILL CONTINUE THE EARLY MORNING MIX ACROSS THE
NORTH UNTIL THE WAA TURNS TO ALL RAIN. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH THIS INITIAL PCPN.

ANTICIPATE PCPN TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING WITH THE END OF THE WAA. BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY LINGER ALONG OR NEAR THE SURFACE AND H8 BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN TO EASTERN IOWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF A MTW TO OSH LINE BUT THEN GREATLY REDUCED FOR AREAS NORTHWEST
OF THIS LINE.

THE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD COUPLED UPPER
JET PATTERN DEVELOPS DRIFTS OVER THE AREA AND FGEN FORCING
INCREASES AS COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST SAGS INTO THE AREA. A
SURFACE WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK OVER NORTHEAST IL OR FAR SOUTHEAST
WI ON SUNDAY.

GUID MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED LOWER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE WITH THE LOW SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE WITH PRECIPITATION
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ITS AMOUNT AND TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.

COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS.
MODELS HAD HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE CHANGE TO SNOW WILL OCCUR THE LATEST. SNOW TOTALS
SHOULD TOP OUT AT NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES SINCE QPF IS LOWER IN THE
COLDER AIR...AND LOCATIONS WHERE QPF IS HIGHER WILL TAKE THE
LONGEST TO CHANGE TO SNOW. KEPT SOME SNOW ON MONDAY...MAINLY FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION.

LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER IN THE WEEK DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. HAVE KEPT WITH THE BLEND
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTED IN
SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THERE SHOULD
BE A BIT OF A WARM UP BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE LOWER CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE RAIN COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. DO NOT
HAVE THUNDER IN THE 06Z TAFS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG






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