Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 160901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
301 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

A weak clipper system will continue to produce light snow over
most of the area this morning. The snow should lift north and
diminish in the afternoon as the system departs. Additional snow
accumulation should be an inch or less. Highs will be close to

Surface high to our northeast will provide easterly flow across
lake Michigan tonight. This will keep low level moist and could
produce some every light snow or freezing drizzle near the lake
and bay. Clouds and winds off the water will keep lows about 10
degrees above normal.

Some very light snow or freezing drizzle is possible near the lake
and bay early Sunday, but it should be generally dry, with
temperatures about 5 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Upper air pattern will flatten for a time this weekend into the
middle of next week, before buckling occurs once again as western
ridge becomes re-established over about 130W. As the pattern re-
amplifies, models continue to suggest that a cyclone will impact
the state during the second half of the week. Until then, low
amplitude split flow will lead to small precip chances and temps a
bit above normal.

Forecast was a general blend of the 16/00Z ECMWF and GFS. Both
models on the 00Z run are reasonably close with storm system next
Thursday-Friday, given we`re still 120+ hours out. Indications
are that several inches of snow could fall across much of the
forecast area. Colder air still looks likely for the holiday
weekend as arctic air begins to move into northern U.S.

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1005 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Band of light snow stretching from Minnesota to
southwest Wisconsin associated with a sagging frontal boundary
and an upper jet couplet. The light snow with MVFR cigs were
spreading into parts of central Wisconsin a bit faster so moved up
the arrival and departure times overnight into Saturday morning.
Available meso models focus on a period of light accumulation over
parts of central and east central Wisconsin between 06z and 14z
then diminishing.



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