000
FXUS63 KGRB 151921
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
221 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
THIS PORTION OF THE STATE WITH A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS EVENING.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR THIS
FEATURE. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES INDICATING SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WERE HEADING
SOUTHEAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW WARM
IT GETS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS OFF
THE BAY AND THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS IN COOLER AIR TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE EAST
AND WELL INTO THE 70S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE WEST AND DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

ACTIVE PATTERN DURING PERIOD AS SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROFS INTO MIDWEST. UPPER PATTERN BECOMES BLOCKY AGAIN BY
LATER IN PERIOD...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS ON HOW WE GET TO THAT POINT.

IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM...GENERAL AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY-
SAT EVENT AS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER RIDGE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING INTO INITIALLY DRY ATMOS OVER NE WISC...AND MODELS INDICATE
WEAKENING OF SYSTEM. WILL TREND FORECAST WITH BETTER PROB OF
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES NE INTO STATE AND BRINGS
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN
LAKES.

UPPER LOW THEN TAKES RESIDENCE NEAR WISCONSIN AS BLOCKING DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. SHOWERY AND COOL TUE-WED.

TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD A BLEND OF HIGHER PERFORMING MODELS.
HOWEVER...MODEL MAX TEMPERATURES TEMPERED ON DAYS WITH EXPECTED
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
W/NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOWARDS 00Z. LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W/SW FOR A TIME
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE
MORNING.

ALSO...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES OVER THE REGION.
IF ANY SHOWERS DO GET GOING...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR FAR NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN COULD SEE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND RISING HUMIDITY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS COME OFF THE BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY AS THEY ARE TODAY...
SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ012-013-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
FIRE WEATHER...ECKBERG