Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 291146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
746 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

We will see another day with highs in the 70s on Memorial Day with
some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Coverage on the precipitation will not be widespread. An
upper low located over the northern Great Lakes will bring a fair
amount of cloud cover for Tuesday into Wednesday with isolated to
scattered showers at times both days. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday
will cool into the 60s, which is below normal for this time of year.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Main forecast focus in the short term in on cloud cover trends and
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.

The Great Lakes region will be under the influence of an upper low
that will spin across the northern Great Lakes throughout the short
term. We are expecting precipitation at times through Wednesday
focused with upper shortwave troughs pivoting around the upper low.
Precipitation will be diurnally forced, with the bulk occurring in
the afternoon and evening hours the next few days. Simulated
reflectivity from the convection allowing models show the diurnal
trend as well. Best instability will be today with some lingering
low level moisture. Have showers and storms in the forecast for this
afternoon, but nothing more than scattered pops (30 pct). After this
evening just have isolated to scattered rain showers and left out
the mention of thunder as instability is forecast to be much less.

There will be a decent amount of sunshine today, especially from the
morning into the early afternoon. Clouds will become more prevalent
especially from tonight through Wednesday morning.

High temperatures will cool a bit each day early this week with
below normal highs in the 60s expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

A warm front lifting north across the southern cwa will likely
produce showers/storms Thursday night and Friday. The best
instability is confined to areas south of I-94.

Forecast confidence next weekend is low due to quite a bit of model
spread. The major models generally show sfc high pressure building
south toward the Great Lakes, but also some troughiness aloft. By
Sunday the gfs shows a low moving from Manitoba southeast toward
Chicago which would bring some rain toward southwest Lower MI, but
the ecmwf doesn`t show any low. The Canadian on the other hand
strongly supports the GFS so that`s which way the forecast will lean
for now. We`ll include a chance of scattered rain showers late
Saturday into Sunday.

Highs will be a bit cooler than normal...a couple of degrees either
side of 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 746 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Scattered to broken
cumulus clouds will develop today with bases around 5000ft. The
clouds should thicken tonight with broken ceilings around 5000ft
becoming more prevalent. A few showers and an isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, however
latest guidance is indicating that we may stay dry at the TAF

Winds will be gusty from the west southwest today at 12-25 knots.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Westerly winds are expected for much of the next couple of days with
an upper low spinning across the northern Great Lakes. Winds are
generally expected to be in the 10 to 20 knot range which should
keep waves below advisory criteria. 25 knot winds are located in the
1000-2000ft range though so we will need to keep an eye on the
forecast in case the winds over perform.


Issued at 1236 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Not expecting any significant impacts from thunderstorm activity
today or showers on Memorial Day. While some rivers in the
Kalamazoo River basin may be running above normal this week, many
rivers will likely run near normal. Any rises should be well
within banks. No flooding is anticipated.




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