Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 220113
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
913 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME RAIN BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LARGE AREA OF STEADY SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM.
INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY. A SCATTERED SECONDARY
LINE OF SHOWERS OVER NRN LWR AND ERN WI TRAILS THE MAIN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. IR LOOP
SHOWS CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. CUT POPS BACK FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND LIMITED MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES
BUT EVEN THERE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
EASTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COMPLEX LOW EVOLVES
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OUR
REGION. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA
SHOULD BUILD IN TO PRODUCE FAIR BUT COOL WX SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. MKG IS ALREADY MVFR WITH 3SM -RA EVEN THROUGH THE
CEILING IS 9000 FT. I EXPECT THIS RAIN BAND IN STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA SINCE SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE IS JUST
STARTING TO BE INFUSED INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. FOR THIS I HAVE LOWER CEILING FOR THE MORE
EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID EVENING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS MINIMAL SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WHEN IT DOES I
EXPECT THE SKY TO CLEAR FOR A FEW HOURS. THE MORE EASTERN TAF
SITES MAY BRIEFLY GO MVFR WITH CEILING AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BUT
EVEN THERE I EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE THE
COLD FRONT IS THROUGH.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE COLD AIR COMES IN AND WITH IT COLD AIR
LOW CLOUDS. FOR NOW I HAVE MOSTLY VFR CIGS... HOWEVER LAN AND
MAYBE EVEN JXN... ARE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THEY MAY DEEPER INTO THE
COLD AIR LOW CLOUDS AND IN SO DOING GO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO
LATE MORNING. IT WILL BE BREEZY TOO...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

WARNINGS NO LONGER EXIST ON ANY OF THE AREA RIVERS OR STREAMS. ALL
HAVE SINCE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ADVISORIES...WHICH ARE EVEN NUMBERED
THEMSELVES. SCOTTVILLE...CROTON AND EVART ARE THE HOLD OUTS WITH
THE ONGOING ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
DROPPING RIVER LEVELS BUT SOME LOCALIZED AFFECTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

WE WILL SEE A QUICK HIT OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SHY OF CREATING
ANY CONCERN FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVES
IN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM






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