Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 280322
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FLURRIES HAVE FINALLY ENDED IN THE SOUTHEAST...
OVERWHELMED BY WEAK SUBSIDENCE WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING. 925H TEMPS
AROUND -14 ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING WELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER TEMP FALL WILL BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI NEXT FEW HOURS. ALREADY LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS.

STILL EXPECT -SN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI AFTER
08Z...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE EAST BY 14Z. EXPECT SOME AREAS TO
RECEIVE BRIEF BURST OF -SN DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCD WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AFFECTING DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE BRIEFLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.
VERY COLD PAVEMENT TEMPS LIKELY TO AID IN DEVELOPING SLIPPERY
ROADWAYS. CONSIDERING NUMBER OF SHOPPERS HEADING OUT FRIDAY
MORNING DURING -SN...ISSUED SPS TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH A PERIOD
OF -SN STILL EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FROM LATE TNGT THRU FRI
MRNG. VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE TO AROUND ONE MILE. SMALL THREAT
FOR -ZL LATER ON FRI INTO FRI EVE BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 22 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING. LOW TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED FROM LATE
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND THE INCREASING CLOUDS
WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION
MOVES THROUGH. THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...TO AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES NORTHEAST.

TEMPS WILL BE MILDER TOMORROW...BUT WITH THE CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY...OPTED TO LOWER HIGHS JUST A TAD.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

WAA JUMPS 850 MB TEMPS 5C TO 7C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z SATURDAY
..TOPPING OUT AROUND +10C/11C BY 00Z SUNDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MAINLY FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AS DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE
DRIES OUT...WHILE 12Z NAM SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE A SNOW/PELLET MIX.
HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM SHOWING A DRY DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE FOR A PERIOD
FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE MIX FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

EARLY LOWS...THEN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

MODELS KEEP LOW LAYERS MOIST UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION
INVERSION...WITH INDICATIONS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE QPF FIELDS
SATURDAY MORNING. BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG...BUT NOT
CERTAIN ENOUGH IN ENOUGH DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TO PUT IN FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WARMEST 925 MB TEMPS CROSS REGION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

CONSENSUS POSITION OF SURFACE TROUGH PLACES IT RIGHT OVER SRN
WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP PCPN BACK TO THE NW CLOSER
TO SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SURFACE TO 850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONES. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYING WELL NORTH...AND NO DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE WEAKER OMEGA MOVING THROUGH...WILL KEEP
FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY PER CONSENSUS POPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE REACHED RIGHT AT DAYBREAK....WITH TEMPS
RECOVERING ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY/S HIGHS THEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES OVER.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.

ALL MODELS CLEAR MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EAST OF REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY...COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. GEM AND ECMWF BRING PCPN WITH A DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A LESS-AMPLIFIED TROUGH ON
GFS BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ECMWF AND GEM KEEP REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHILE OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS
DEEPENING LOW WITH A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. BLENDED POPS OF
30-40 PCT SEEM A BIT HIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PARALLEL GFS NOT AS
ROBUST WITH THE WAVE AND PCPN...SO COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAS BROUGHT DOWN POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

SKIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EARLY EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO FRIDAY. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...TO AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE A DRY SNOW...WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 16 OR 17
TO 1.

CIGS WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE SNOW MOVES IN...MAYBE EVEN IFR FOR
A WHILE...WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WILL WATCH UPSTREAM OBS LATER TO GAUGE HOW LOW VSBYS WILL
GO. THINKING VSBYS WILL GO DOWN TO THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE...BUT COULD
BE BRIEFLY LOWER.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS AGAIN...AND WAVES TO 4 FEET. OVERALL THOUGH...CONDITIONS
SEEM TOO BORDERLINE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MBK



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