Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 040825
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI THE RESULT OF WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NRN CWA THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TODAY AND FOR TNT. FEW-SCT CUMULUS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. A
LATE DAY LAKE BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LITTLE FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS.

WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE HOLDING STRONG OVER THE GREAT LAKES... SO A LAKE BREEZE AND A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE THE ONLY CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER BY THE LAKE... ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGH AROUND 80
WELL INLAND.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
WI ON THURSDAY. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN WI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MKX AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
COULD TRIGGER AN MCS THAT TRACKS INTO WI SOMETIME LATE THU NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAYING AND RUNNING INTO A
LOT OF DRY AIR. ALSO... THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WITH THE SYSTEM. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT LOWEST
CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEAST WI.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER FORCING TO BE OVER NORTHERN
WI... ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE UPPER JET AND BAROCLINIC
ZONES SET UP.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY
TUESDAY AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WI. FEW-SCT050-060 CUMULUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS FOR LATE TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC



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