021
FXUS63 KMKX 020255
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
955 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase late tonight, with a few rounds of
  showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night/early Friday
  morning. Isolated strong storms possible, but widespread
  severe weather is not expected.

- Limited rain chances on Saturday, followed by additional
  precipitation chances for the early to middle portion of next
  workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 953 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Cloud cover associated with the moisture north of the warm
front accompanying the low pressure across the Great Plains has
moved in across southern Wisconsin this evening. Some sprinkles
have been noted across Sauk and Marquette Counties with
additional showers currently moving towards southwestern
Wisconsin from eastern Iowa. Recent CAMs suggest these showers
should begin to enter southwestern Wisconsin around midnight,
with showers (PoPs of 30-40%) moving across the southern portion
of the state through about 6AM. However, given the dry air
below 700hPa, still thinking it may initially be challenging
for rain to reach the surface overnight.

Falkinham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tonight through Thursday night:

Moisture will begin to increase across the area this evening,
north of a warm front and ahead of an amplifying trough across
the north central Plains. There is currently an appreciable
amount of low and mid level dry air across the area, and this
will need to be overcome before rain starts making it down to
the surface late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Other than a
few sprinkles this evening, think that most places will stay dry
until after midnight, with limited PoPs across the eastern half
of the area until after 4 AM.

Instability will initially be very limited over the region,
suggesting little in the way of thunder potential overnight and
into the morning hours tomorrow.

Guidance suggests that we may see a break in the precipitation
during the late morning and early afternoon hours tomorrow, in
the wake of a lead shortwave that will be lifting into northern
Wisconsin and the UP. Not sure we`ll see a total break, but at
least a decrease in coverage for a few hours seems probable
during this timeframe.

PoPs increase again heading into the late afternoon and
especially evening hours, as a disorganized area of low pressure
and an associated warm front tries to lift into southern
Wisconsin. This will pose our best window for severe weather,
but the overall threat is limited. IF the warm front makes it
into southern Wisconsin, there will be a small wind and tornado
threat. If the front stays south (and for anyone north of the
front in general), any severe threat will be limited to hail.
Again, the lack of organization with this system and limited
instability should mitigate any sort of widespread severe
threat.

Temperatures tomorrow will be tricky, with readings highly
dependent on frontal placement and precipitation coverage. There
will also be a non-diurnal component, with temperatures over the
far southern portion of the state either holding steady or
rising slightly during the early evening hours.

Precipitation is expected to end from west to east late Thursday
night and early Friday, as drier air builds into the area.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Friday through Wednesday:

Any lingering showers should end by mid morning on Friday, with
clearing skies through the day as high pressure moves through
the region. Highs will be around 70, with a lake breeze likely
by afternoon as winds become light from the north.

Another shortwave will push through Saturday, bringing at least
low chances for showers. Precip potential trends have been going
down over the last few days, given weak forcing and limited
moisture return. High pressure then arrives for Sunday, which is
looking to be a very nice day with highs in the 70s and light
winds.

Temperatures are favored to remain above average through the
middle portion of next week. The overall pattern will remain
active, with chances for showers and thunderstorms late Monday
and Tuesday, and again mid week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 953 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A BKN to OVC cloud deck around 12kft is currently moving into
southern Wisconsin north of the warm front associated with the
low across the Great Plains. A few showers are possible across
southern Wisconsin overnight, mainly between midnight and 6AM
with TAF sites farther west seeing the earlier timing and those
farther east seeing the later timing. Given the dry air below
700hPa and the scattered nature of the showers, impacts to TAF
sites should be minimal, but some visibility restriction is
possible if a shower passes overhead.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across southern Wisconsin late Thursday morning into the
afternoon hours as the low moves towards the state. Ceilings
will drop throughout the day, reaching MVFR conditions across
western Wisconsin by Thursday afternoon and across eastern
Wisconsin by Thursday night. Visibilities are expected to
generally be VFR, but may reach MVFR in stronger showers/storms.

Falkinham

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 139 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Gusty southwest to west winds today will gradually diminish this
evening, as high pressure moves into and across the lake. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore
waters through late afternoon.

Winds will then turn easterly and increase on Thursday, as low
pressure lifts from Kansas into southwestern Wisconsin. That
low will weaken and lift north into Canada on Friday, with high
pressure briefly building into the region.

Another area of low pressure will lift into the region on
Saturday. A brief period of gusty north winds is expected Sunday
morning as the low moves east and high pressure builds in from
the west.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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