Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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080
FXUS63 KMKX 272032
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
332 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium
Water vapor/RAP animation shows mid level shortwave approaching from
MN and IA. Pronounced outflow boundary shifting south through cwa.
Lake breeze boundary intersecting outflow may spawn a shower as
well. Outflow boundary triggering new convection vcnty Sauk county.
So boundaries and instability enough to keep things going for a while
Then meso models show a lot of this wiping out or at least becoming
more isolated in nature as the night wears on. May see a bit
more activity arrive later in the night as influence of upper
features arrive.

.THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium
Inverted trough axis is proggd to be situated across the wrn CWA
with some flattening of this feature into the afternoon hours. Mid
level flow remains cyclonic across srn WI with embedded vorticity
maxima traversing across or just south of WI. Will keep highest
pops in the southern and western cwa. 925 flow turns more to the
northeast so a cooler thermal profile takes hold. MOS guide and llvl
rh progs keep quite a bit of cloud cover locked in.

Thursday night through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Medium.

A shortwave trough and cold front will be moving away over nrn IL
by early Thu eve but will maintain small chances of tstorms to
handle any lingering precipitation. Another shortwave trough will
then slowly move across IA and nrn IL Fri-Sat with a weak inverted
sfc trough possibly extending nwd into srn WI. Thus will maintain
small chances of showers and tstorms for that period. Nely winds
and pleasant temps and dewpoints will prevail with high pressure
centered over the nrn Great Lakes.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast Confidence
Medium.

An upper ridge will build toward the western Great Lakes for Sun-
Mon with dry conditions and a warming trend. Shortwave troughs
will then roll the ridge over to the east bringing a return of hot
and humid conditions for Tue-Wed with at least small chances of
tstorms.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Band of convection associated with surface
boundary affecting areas north of TAF sites. With outflow boundary
sagging south and lake breeze boundary could certainly see more
shra/tsra pop up. Wind shift to the northeast accompanies the
southward moving outflow boundary. Could see some more development
as the night wears on with mid level energy though latest HRRR not
showing much coverage to this. SREF cig/vsbys prog shows axis of
some higher probs for lower cigs/vsbys later tonight into early
Thursday as post-frontal cooler airmass/low level thermal trough
starts to exert itself across srn WI. There continues to be precip
chances into Thursday as mid level wave rides southeast across the
area with some hints of weak surface cyclogenesis south of WI.


&&

.MARINE...Nely winds will develop this evening and last into Fri.
Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet Thu ngt into Fri AM. Winds are
expected to stay below criteria. A small craft advisory may be
needed for wave heights.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/Thursday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Collar
Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday...Gehring



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