Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 181001
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
401 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Coming soon.

.LONG TERM...

Monday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is Medium.

Synoptic setup: The right entrance region of an upper jet will sit
over WI for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, the nose of
the low level jet will push into southern WI by Monday afternoon,
leading to strong moisture transport into the area and the
potential for some thunder. Strong low level frontogenesis will
also sit over southern WI for a long period of time.

Precip type (South): Areas south of the front will have periods
of rain, heavy at times. There is over a 90% chance for greater
than an inch of rain for areas along and south of I-94, and a 50%
chance of 2" or greater near Elkhorn, Racine and Kenosha.

Precip type (North): North of the front, temperatures will be
below freezing for much of the time while it`s raining, so a
significant amount of freezing rain (greater than a quarter inch)
is possible toward central WI. A Winter Storm Watch has been
issued.

Potential impacts: power outages and icy roads/sidewalks are
possible for areas north of a line from Lone Rock to Columbus to
Sheboygan with considerable ice accumulation. Heavy rain in
southeast WI will lead to several rivers rising to minor flood
stage due to runoff and melting snow. Minor street flooding is
possible as well.

Uncertainty: If the front shifts north from what the forecast is
right now, more people will get rain rather than freezing rain. If
it shifts south, The Madison and I-94 corridor will have a better
chance of seeing higher ice accumulations.

Wednesday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium.

The persistent upper level pattern will lead to a couple more
rounds of precip over the Midwest later in the week. There`s only
a small chance for snow in Southern WI Wednesday night as the
north side of a system brushes our area. The weekend could bring
more measurable precip, with the freezing line bisecting our area
once again.

&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Coming soon.

&&

.MARINE...

Coming soon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
     afternoon for WIZ046-047-051-052-056>058.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for
     LMZ644>646.

     Gale Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for LMZ643.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Monday through Saturday...Cronce



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