Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 130940
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
340 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence medium.

Temperatures have not cooled as much as previously thought this
morning with high clouds continuing to increase. Thus high temps may
be able to reach the lower 20s in far se WI today with teens
elsewhere. The arctic high will shift across the nrn Great Lakes
today and reach New England on Sat. A weak upper wave will bring a
round of 700 mb warm advection and weak 850-600 mb frontogenesis for
tonight. There is plenty of low level dry air to overcome but
forecast soundings suggest it is possible in a narrow band from sw
WI through the Madison area to Sheboygan. Only went with chances of
light snow for now along with flurries in other areas across srn WI.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather for Saturday and
Sunday. Temps should be right around normal for mid-January.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Low pressure will move through the region early next week,
bringing widespread precip to the forecast area. Models continue
to agree fairly well with the general track of the low. Precip
will probably start as light snow Sunday night, before a warm
layer aloft brings in a mix of sleet and freezing rain for a brief
period later Sunday night into Monday morning. Should see mainly
rain by Monday afternoon, with the rain likely continuing into
Tuesday.

Still looks like period of sleet and freezing rain will not be
that prolonged...maybe 3-6 hours.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Went with a dry forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Models do
show a wrinkle in the flow here and there, so not out of the
question for a few sprinkles or snowflakes during this period.
Should see above normal temps both Wed and Thu.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Broken to overcast high clouds today will
lower to 4-6 kft tonight with chances of light snow. MVFR vsbys with
the snow will be possible for a few hours from sw WI through the
Madison area to Sheboygan.

$$

.MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory will expire at 6 AM north of North
Point Lighthouse. Gusty nwly winds will gradually subside through
the morning.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Saturday THROUGH Thursday...DDV



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