Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 191515

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
915 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017


No major changes to the forecast this morning. Breezy west winds
will continue today, with winds becoming more southwesterly later
this afternoon and this evening. A few areas of low stratus will
scour out by this afternoon, before high cloud cover builds in
later this evening.


.AVIATION...(15Z Update)

Scattered to broken MVFR stratus will slowly clear out this
morning, with high clouds then building in later this afternoon.
Winds will remain breezy from the west, becoming more
southwesterly by later this afternoon.



Small Craft Advisory continues through noon for the nearshore
waters. A few gusts above 20 KT may continue into the afternoon,
but overall, winds and waves will slowly subside.

Small Craft conditions may again be met Monday evening and night.


PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 247 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017)


TODAY and TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High.

Stratus continues to break up over western WI as subsidence and
drier air increases from the upper Midwest.  Expect this trend to
slowly continue eastward, but low clouds will be slower to clear in
the east due to lingering thermal trof in this area through 12Z. Low
clouds should become few-sct by later this morning in the east.
Upstream increasing warm air advection over northern Plains and
upper midwest will result in mid-high level clouds spreading across
southern WI this afternoon and evening before pushing off to the
east.  Cold air surge will weaken and become neutral this morning
with weak warm air return during the afternoon.  Despite the return
of some sunshine, a cold day lies ahead with lingering WNW winds and
daytime temps only rising to the low to mid 30s.  Daytime
temperatures will be at least 10 degrees warmer on Monday.

Monday - Confidence...Medium
Decent uptick in temps as gusty southwest winds pull in warmer
airmass with low pressure passing to our north. At the moment GFS
and NAM soundings show limited depth of mixing which keeps temps
from reaching full potential. Better mixing in combo with 925
technique would suggest we could get over 50.

Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Cold front arrives in the morning with winds becoming gusty from
the northwest. 925 temps proggd to fall into negative territory
celsius. LLVL RH progs show an increase within the cold advection
regime typical of an establishing low level thermal trough.

Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Looks like we get a break from the windy conditions as influence
of surface high passing to our south keeps pressure gradient
weaker across southern WI.

Thursday through Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Southwest winds kick back in ahead of another low pressure system
that will again pass to our north on Friday. Warmest day looks to
be on Friday as 850/925 temps increase within low level thermal
ridging ahead of the cold front. So could see temps scoot above
the Superblend guidance so trended in that direction. At this time
the ECMWF is the outlier showing precip on Friday. Decent
agreement that cold front arrives Friday night setting the stage
for a blustery Saturday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...99
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