Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 120301
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1001 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-The combination of low humidity and gusty southwest winds may
 lead to elevated fire weather conditions again Tuesday,
 especially west of Madison and Fond du Lac.

-Well above average temperatures are expected through Wednesday.

-Showers with thunderstorms possible Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VWP data from KMKX radar indicates the presence of a
southwesterly LLJ as predicted. With the enhanced mixing of the
nocturnal layer, and patchy cirrus clouds evident on GOES
Nighttime Microphysics, radiational cooling will continue at a
slow rate, keeping the forecast on track. Warm and breezy
conditions Tuesday make fire weather a main area of focus going
into the next forecast iteration.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Tonight and Tuesday:

Clear skies and a southwest breeze are expected tonight with
high pressure overhead. The low level jet and continued low
level warm air advection will keep our temperatures from tanking
overnight, so expecting lows in the mid 40s.

It will be another warm and dry day across southern WI tomorrow.
Breezy southwest winds are also expected again as weak low
pressure slides across Lake Superior with similar wind gusts as
today. The 925mb temps will be about 2 degrees warmer than
today, with a potential for just as deep of mixing. Therefore,
temps will be a notch warmer with highs in the upper 60s to
around 70.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Tuesday night through Monday:

The trough sliding across the upper Great Lakes and Ontario
will bring a wind shift to the east-northeast during the mid
Wednesday morning hours. With lake temperatures in the 40s, this
will keep lakeshore temps cooler than inland areas.

There used to be some light warm frontal precip forecast along
the WI/IL border on Wed before that wind shift, but it`s looking
too dry for that to happen now.

Low pressure developing in the Plains will track across Iowa
Thursday and into northern IN or southern MI Thursday night. The
warm front associated with this system will ride across southern
WI and showers are looking more likely. Thunderstorms are possible
as well with this elevated warm air advection and most unstable
CAPE of around 500 j/kg possible. The NAM is more robust with
precip amounts and instability than other models, but that
looks overdone. Depending on how far north this warm front gets,
the WI/IL border may see less rain than areas farther north (or
opposite).

A clipper system is expected across Lake Superior Saturday
afternoon. The associated cold front will usher cooler air into
southern WI for Sunday and we can`t rule out some flurries or
light snow showers.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1000 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Wind Profile data from our radar in Jefferson County WI
currently shows the low-level jet, southwest at roughly 45 kts,
1500 to 2000 ft above the surface. With surface winds measuring
10 kts or less, the LLJ will continue to pose a low- level wind
shear threat until around 10 AM CDT Tuesday, when daytime
heating mixes the faster winds down to the surface and reduces
the shear. Gusty southwest winds (gusts up to 20-30 kts) and
VFR conditions expected Tuesday.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 357 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Gusty southwest winds will diminish along the nearshore areas
this evening. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed
Tomorrow afternoon due to similar wind conditions.

No gales are expected for the open lake through Tuesday. Look
for a wind shift from south to north-northeast late Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a cold front makes its way down Lake
Michigan. Steady ENE winds less than 20 kt are expected
Wednesday into Thursday. Wave heights should exceed 4 feet on
Thursday so a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Breezy
north winds are expected Friday with gusts up to 30 kt possible
for the south half of Lake Michigan.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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