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000
FXUS63 KMKX 130835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND FROM THE LAKE EARLIER HAS RAISED DEW
POINTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...THOUGH THEY HAVE STARTED TO DIP AGAIN
WITH RH VALUES 90 PCT AND HIGHER KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR FROST.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AREAS HAVE NOT FALLEN AS FAR WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL STIRRING FROM SURFACE WINDS. STILL A CHANCE FOR TEMPS
BELOW 30F FOR AN HOUR OR TWO SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS IS FOR NOW.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...FIRST AT
700 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A
SECOND SURGE OF FORCING WITH UPGLIDE AS 30-40 KNOT WINDS CROSS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA....MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NAM CONTINUES TO BE
VERY DRY IN LOWER LAYERS...WITH QPF LIMITED TO STRONGEST LIFT AND
LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS NRN WI...WITH THE ECMWF
ALSO KEEPING CWA DRY WITH SATURATION ON AREA SOUNDINGS LIMITED TO
750-700 MB AND ABOVE. HOWEVER AMOUNT OF LIFT AND CURRENT PCPN
REPORTS UPSTREAM SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF LOWER SATURATION LEVELS AND
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS AS SEEN ON GFS/SREF. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS HIGH PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE/LOW QPF EVENT.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS A WARMER AND CAPPED AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FRONT AND MODEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LIKELY OVERDONE...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW END. LOOKS DRY THEN
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS BETTER CERTAINTY NOW WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME DISPUTE AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET
BEFORE THE LAKE BEGINS TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE...BUT OVERALL...SHOULD
BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FARTHER INLAND.

THOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE THUS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE AWAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL LIKELY BE
MILDER NEAR THE LAKE THAN ON TUESDAY.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

LOOKS DRY THURSDAY WITH THE STALLED FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK
NORTHWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME QUESTIONS WITH TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL
DEPENDING ON PRECIP AND HOW QUICK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS
NORTHWARD. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL LIKELY BE COOLER NEAR
THE LAKE MOST DAYS THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT CIGS NO LOWER THAN 5K FT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT...WITH VSBYS STAYING 6SM OR BETTER...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED MVFR VSBY IN A HEAVIER SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. DO HAVE A CONCERN WITH LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WINDS AROUND 800 FT INCREASE TO 25
TO 30 KNOTS...WITH 30-35 KNOTS AROUND 1500 FT. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
LATEST HI-RES MODELS BEFORE ISSUANCE TO SEE IF POTENTIAL IS ENOUGH
TO PUT IN TAFS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ060-062-
     065>072.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>059-063-064.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV